Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Fed Rate Cuts

My trading mantra of if "it works twice... don't count on the third time."
so, I have been safe to short the market just before the rate cuts, the last 2 times.... But I think the downturn in the market will be cooked into the cake next time the fed meets, and a .25 will be cooked in the books... (there are a lot of moves between now and then, the next meeting is on the 29/30Th.

The only thing the rate cut does, IMO is provide money for the banks to dump into the market. but the banks need the liquidity to cover their reserve ratios, and can't put it into the market, for the most part.

My bet will probably be to cash out before, and wait for the announcement.... Though I'd love to see them Tighten.... Especially if the job numbers are in the 80k range, I'd love to see some tough love by the fed.... We have to get inflation under control.

Other than provide cash to the banks, the other thing the cuts do is create a loss of dollar value, Which can create a foreign bid to the market..... the market can be an inflation hedge.... Anything with real value, stocks, commodities, can be an inflation hedge in a hyperinflation scenario... Look up weimar republic.

Oh God, the hamburgler(kneal) is on CNBC... some day that little girl's voice will change, and she will become a real boy.

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