Economic Outlook

I've been a Ridiculous Bear since 2000, Mostly because of what I saw in the Tech industry at that point. I saw a ridiculous amount of speculation, and delusion about what tech was going to do in the next 2 years.

But, what we have seen is that technology has changed our lives as projected, just not as rapidly as some deluded themselves into. But that boom and bust Did more damage to the economy than good. These Whip Saws are like Car Accidents.

I believe that these ridiculous Booms, and Busts..... Are Created, not by a conspiracy. But this economy has not recovered, The only growth has been as a result of inflation.


I'm just talking about a generic go to fast food/ or cheep Mexican.

In 1990 dinner for 1 was $4 and $5 with a drink.
In 2000 Dinner was $6 maybe $7 with a soda.
Now dinner is Twice that, and I'm not surprised when I pay $20. but $14

That is double digit inflation.

My point is:
With 10%+ percent Year over year Inflation. and 3-5% gdp that is a 5-7% contraction.... this is the lie of our government, and our economy.

With additional cuts in the fed rate, and declining dollar, we are threatening 10% YOY contraction.... and the possibility of 20% CONTRACTION OF OUR ECONOMY!!! this year
with a 3% S&p growth last year, and the fed giving us 2-3% inflation that is still .5% growth.... USING the Government numbers we have a stagnant economy last year. also remember some of the S&P growth is GLOBAL.... The likly hood of stagnant USA economy is certain in 2007.

We are going to wish for a Recession, this is a Supercycle event. Things are getting more expensive and we have less money to pay for them. We have been in a recession since 2000 and untill we face some hard truths, this economy is going no where.

You can't grow the economy with inflation.... Which is what we are doing. at one point money becomes worthless regardless of how low a rate your paying to borrow it.

If we face 5% inflation this year, it's better to borrow money at 4% now, move it overseas than to borrow at 3% next year.