Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Chart-Astrology

I like to Tongue and cheek Mock Technical analysis... Especially Elliot Wave theory, which basically recreates the natural cycle of a bell curve.

and Yet, I live and die by EWT.

one of my favorites is what is referred to as the Statistic Cross, where one moving average crosses another. Problem is this is a constant occurrence, and as an index goes down the near term moving average start crossing the longer term Moving averages.

The idea that the 5 day MA crossing the 10 day, is more significant than the 4 day crossing the 7.....

But basically, most the convoluted technical analysis is just a complicated way to say that the stock is going up or down.... and I swear I can figure that out without looking for crosses of the 5 day MA.(I think my point is, life can be less complicated, and I find it more effective to stare at a chart, and usually I can tell if the move is decelerating and about to reverse..

It seems much more valid to look at the motion of the curve, and assess the early and late adopters, and try and realize when the late adopters(people buying the top) are jumping in, then wait for the Decline, and get out.... As well the inverse when long. Always looking for the "Third Wave" or when the crowd jumps into a Trade.

I love technical analysis, but as the mantra goes "Drawn with a Crayon"... and you should see some of the charts I work up, where I draw intra-day Elliot Waves, and the longer term moves... And it ends up looking like a 1st grade art project.

"And you know my Name is Simon, and the things I draw come true"

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