The debate on Friday was this. The vix had a Huge move HUGE!! and a snapback is probable!Maybe we have a momentum low and a secondary in the above chart.
My issue is "Everybody is saying that"... DOG to PONY! I've never seen such a universal call in my life.... We are going to bounce.
The second issue I have is that we have a Wunderbar, and we had much of a downbar, which was limited by the range. Ya, it was a big day... but I think we could have another downbar.
and like I said on friday, I'll be happy to scalp a long after the open on Monday.
2 comments:
Yeah, textbook says we pop in AM, but this might only a token move and then a drop. S&P futures up as I type, but Asia getting beaten like a red-headed stepchild.
The long term-- ie, a week-- says down. At some point we have to get a renewed belief in the negatives and a realization that valuations are too high. You want to see a wunderbar, then look at the weekly chart, and you can name the doji too.
My strategy is to let the market tell me... and that will be with breakdowns below support. When stocks hit their 14 or 20 day lows, they will be signalling an overt warning. The problem will be that they all will do it at the same time... maybe tomorrow at 11:00am or maybe later, who knows?
Tony has become Walter Payton.
usually the wunderbar(which was what thursday was) is followed by another down bar. But we did get part of one within that session which is what makes me nervous.
It kills me, who the fuck is going to pay 20PE's for this crap... get a 10% discount and it's back to 18...(and they are still 20% overvalued)
Hard for me to be stupid enough to play the Long game at this level.
but hold short, Scalp long.
the question would be ... if point DD is at Panic or at overt warning... and panic will be E.
Or if we need a discount on fair value(750-850spx), to get everyone interested....
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