Yellow EMA 60Min 20EMA
Blue EMA 15min 20EMA
Green Line Bear Flag.
Brown/orange Arrow "Trade of Last Resort"
Red Horizontal line. 1066 resistance Breakout point.
In sort of red/pink, We have what MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY!!!!! be a 2 swing Bear Flag. But we don't know that until it has traded (for some time) below that green line.(and blue arrow)
The actual Red Horizontal line is the Trade of last Resort. This doesn't look very convincing as a Pullback and Go, as one would expect from a "Breakout"(Also Yellow Arrow), But to give the other side of the coin it's due. I have yet to see a reversal pattern above it(Brownish Arrow). In Candle theory, we also don't have anything to Hang a Bearish Cap on.. I would say if we can get below that line 1066 and hold below it, that would be some Very Bearish action... I of course would also prefer that we don't make a new high.... There is a chance this is some kind of complex Head and shoulders reversal(above the trade of last resort) on the 5 min, and this is a complex left shoulder. This is all easier to play on the other side or if we see it get below that "Breakout"That blue EMA is the 15 Minute 20EMA, and looks to me like the next time it's tested it will break, and we will move to the Yellow EMA which is the 60min 20EMA(Red Arrow), I would expect if the 15 20EMA can be broken then there will be a bounce off the 60MIN 20EMA... I wouldn't be surprised if this Corresponds to the Test of the Bear Flag in Green, But this could happen as late as Tuesday.... I would expect after it bounces off the 60Min 20EMA it may find resistance on the 15-20 and it will be a Failing Bounce, This is probably the good Short entry as the market comes down a second time to the 60min 20 ema and Breaks through, and we will have an official Bear Flag.
or I'm wrong.
6 comments:
Thanks, that's actually an understandable explanation and it corroborates what I'm learning: this current market is not actionable.
Certainly the the MACD shows significant deceleration of the upmove with the negative divergences, but the upmove is still intact enough where we have no business getting short. T.Lo's buy-stop on the SPY is 108.39.
So, it's fully hedged for now.
Asia and US futures are up.
Ya, you want to see the bounce off the flag(not the trap).
New swing low out of the dollar.
on a test of top, the Vic2B is
1.4922
I of course am obsessed by the glenn beck rape allegations.
eurusd is already above the 1.4922
Ya, it needs to get below that to start to indicate Bearish, but I'd stick with the 1.4820 level On a close. To be Very Bearish.
All of that Without the euro making a new intermediate high.
I would be on a little bit of a "yellow alert", since it all looks like a nice wave 4 into a 5...
Then we wait a few bars and see how it all behaves.
The mamis entry is a Wave 2 entry, so short you are looking for a Lower high, then a move out of the trade channel...
but when that happens "They all" go short, so after that, it will rebound.... and you stalk the rebound.
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