Some Notes

Ugh... I'm in "Don't give a shit" mode.

I have no idea why I try.

For a Short term swing in the market, you need a short term swing in your indicators. Be they an Oscillator, or a Sentiment indicator.

To have an intermediate swing, you need an extreme indicator. The march low was 10 months ago, so your Indicator needs to flash extreme (once in 10 months extreme) As opposed to once a Quarter Extreme, or Once a Month Extreme, on a relative basis.

I've talked about the "Melissa Francis and Larry Kudlow giving each other Fuck me Eyes" indicator. Or some other CNBC sentiment Extreme. One note of caution is I have yet to see that indicator get to an Extreme Euphoria. I have seen Complacency get to an Extreme. This is usually the good trade indicator.

But when I look at the numbers, it seems like we are "Within Spitting Distance" of an Intermediate High. Sentiment wise.

But you have to have a Technical Confirmation. The good Models are combinations of Technicals and Sentiment.

Last week I showed the charts that suggested some kind of top in the next few weeks, we are at 1 week from that point. We had some huge Call Put Ratios, but I also caution using those in such low volume.

So, I also mentioned the wave count on this swing from the past week or two.

To stay honest, though this fits the model for a possible top. We want to see the next Upswing, which we should now have transitioned into.

I also caution, because some of my targets on stocks and sectors. and the top of that Wedge on this upswing, Didn't get hit convincingly.

and even with a pullback, we could see a nice reversal into a run through feb.

If I run by technical Feel, this is a "topping process" this week. But it seems to me, like it's still such a Wildly called top.

now that is some thin trading.

I tell you what.

What was stupid about predicting an Inside day, is that we were at an outside day from both monday and tuesday... at the open.

Today's trade

we are having a gap down, I'd look for the gap fade.

Yesterday, with the midday rally it looked like everyone was anticipating a late minute rally, then got screwed when it never materialized. I was to lazy to talk about the mid session strength.

Beyond the gap fade.... I just don't know... best guess would be an inside day. We didn't really have an inside day yesterday. So Maybe one today. Like I've said I don't have a Good read on the day.

Oh, Brazil....

How can you be even more backwards that the Southern United states.

From here

Brazil's 'needle boy' out of danger after operation

On Monday, doctors took out four needles from the child's neck.
In an earlier three-hour operation, surgeons took out 14 needles piercing the boy's liver, bladder and intestines.

The boy's stepfather Roberto Carlos Magalhaes, 30, has confessed to inserting the needles into the boy's body as part of a black magic ritual

he inserted the needles one at a time, up to three times in a month.

He said he got the boy drunk before driving the needles in

Mr Magalhaes, a bricklayer, told them his mistress had urged him to ritually kill the child to take revenge on his wife.

I just want to make all this clear. This guy, marries a woman, who already has a son. Lives with her for a few months, his Girlfriend convinces him to kill the kid out of revenge.

... I guess revenge for marring him in the first place.

Some notes

I'm still all about a nice restful holiday, I even took a midday nap today.

Weeks ago I suggested that maybe we were moving into aversion. I'm having a hard time with that... There is some real Wonkyness to this cycle. Mostly a ton of people super excited about "Buying this pullback/Crash" in the market.

it seems hard to read...

expectations

I expect today to trade like yesterday. morning buying, disappearing, then some return buying at the close.

Street Art

It's good stuff.

nice late rally

This model fits into the sentiment and Call Put data from last week, sort of an exhastive wave 5. but we could still move sideways for a few days.

No reason to chase, we could have another day or 2 to sell it.

But again, this Jan1 top is the most widely called top ...

these arn't the bagholders you were looking for?

this is interesting

one would have expected it to open flat, and trade up today

Question will be

if we get a nice shooting start or sort of an abandoned baby... or else. I guess it can't be a very good shooting star.

Good Sunday

Yipeeee!!!! we are now through the second of the three worst holidays of the year, the days are getting longer. In another week we will be through the Third.

I threw out a target, I'm feeling super lazy, There are 2 other targets as I can see. I'm not going to post them.

On the sentiment front, quite a few people have become more bearish in the past week as we warm up for the Most Widely called top Ever, Of course tons of them called a pullback last Jan and were right. This was similar to one of the midsummer pullback sentiments. When everybody and their dog was on a small pullback

*shrug*

To be direct; we are more bearish sentiment wise than last week, and I HATE HOLIDAY RALLIES, everything gets weird IMO. Even though my general call is that the technicals are the technicals, and stick to them.

Facing Ali

It's not all that strange that those the burn Twice as Bright burn half as long. I've always wanted to hear a decent version of Mohammad Ali's life. They are usually a bunch of sportscaster nonsense. I have seen some good documentaries about individual fights.

I just finished Facing Ali. It's Mohammad Ali's story told by the boxers and managers that faced him in the ring.

Of course the downside is that Most of these guys are so punch drunk that, you have to have the subtitles... Which they provide.

One of the most interesting things is that for the most part, everyone of them felt lucky to have stood in the ring with "The Greatest of all time". After spending an hour and a half with these broken down old fighters, it also reminds why one would not want to be a boxer.

Confessions of an innocent man.

"I refuse to acknowledge this court, deriving, as it does, it's legitimacy from the teaching and precepts of a false prophet and false god; and deriving as it does its authority from a country and culture that is politically corrupt, socially regressive, morally bankrupt, and genetically degenerate."

William Sampson

An Ex-Patriot living in Saudi Arabia, gets thrown in a Saudi Prison in order to hide the fact that the Saudi Government has it's own Revolution going on, and terrorists fighting against the house of Saud. I'm not sure one can argue that the House of Saud is one of the most corrupt and Vial countries in the Middle east.

The other section of the movie is basically how in bed with the Saudis the western governments are. Who still won't Acknowledge that the Saudis have Tortured Raped and Falsely Imprisoned Western Civilians. Furthermore, the Saudis have then used those people they Kidnapped to Trade for some of the Prisoners at GITMO. Where is Glenn Beck on this one? The Saudis Traded Innocent Civilians that they Kidnapped, for Their own CRIMINALS OUT OF GITMO.

I imagine the Saudis just Laugh at us, Barbarous Feudal lords who rule over their people with an Iron Fist. Just Laugh at our hypocrisy to our own Ideals, and like he said they are absolutely morally Bankrupt.

I'm not getting into any of that 9/11 conspiracy shit, But I would suggest that we picked up some very important people to the Saudis. I guess there is also the possibility that the U.S. and U.K. Snatched up some Suspicious Saudis, to trade for these guys.

I do want to throw in a note to William Sanderson, and what a Brave Guy he is. He spent 3 years throwing shit at his captors. Some say Crazy, I'd say that is just about the most rational thing you could do in that situation. That or give up. But one is the road less Traveled.

I just went through the DVD, I'm tempted to read the book.

Here is a Preview

Here are some video clips

Some Real Christmas.

I saw this: Tell me that it doesn't put this Christmas bullshit in perspective.

Meditate on how true it is now,

as it was in 1969

When John and Yoko started their Peace Project.

WAR IS OVER!(if you want it.)

Give the video a minute to really get going

Seems like Yoko posted this video Jan 1 2007, and this was her note:

http://imaginepeace.com/new... December 8, 2007 I miss you, John. 27 years later, I still wish I could turn back the clock to the Summer of 1980. I remember everything - sharing our morning coffee...

40 years since this campaign in 1969!

that is ur next point.

or the trade of last resort.

The sentiment indicators are in 3rd Standard Deviation monde, and trying to go Fourth.

LIKE I'VE said, I need something Technical to sell. Thought I had it yesterday, with a Lower low into a higher high or double top.

BUT NO JOY... Wait for something new...

Blind Following the Blind... Massive V recovery could be the real contrarian point of view,

I'm still hearing all the markup bullshit because of the HyperInflation..

Even though NOTHING SAYS INFLATION, EXCEPT people running prices up.

for fucks sake

Well

Market seems like it is still in "Give everybody what they want mode"

*shrug*

Well

Yipee or whatever

GYOFB

I would suggest that the reason for the "Trading range" MEME is because if you look at the post 2000 bottom, after the big bounce. It range Traded. Generals always fight the last war. Which doesn't mean it will or won't happen

all the kings punters

Everyone was trading that white line here..... I said we were moving from the 5-20 to the 15-20 which we did, and I expected a bounce. So what happened is all the people trading the white line, got blown out since they set their stops on the white line. and the market went skidding past as the stops were blown out.

as everyone screams "Super spike"... which to bulls is like when the bears talk about how we are going to crash.

NOT TO MOCK the Greatest Trader in the world.... Who has an IF on the spike.

I give an IF on the spike too.

but my position is small enough, if we move to 1113 I make good profit, if I lose I get out. and play another day.

wave counts again

breadth did start to weaken...intraday

But the tradable top on this swing, may not happen until tomorrow.

Who Knows... but on the Daily we have that blue swing and it's top.

Then an ABC correction in Red(ish), Then you have 5 Impulse waves.

After the Orange impulse waves end. It needs an ABC correction.

Sure I badmouth EWT... but it's as good a Hokum as anything else.

ALSO.... THERE ARE ALL THESE PEOPLE LOOKING FOR BAGHOLDERS TOMORROW AND MONDAY..... Is there a chance THEY ARE THE BAGHOLDERS?

swing

tony asked about when we know IF IF IF IF IF the swing has changed. NO NEW HIGH and below the White arrow.

Which sets up sort of a test of the horizontal at the red arrow. where it should get some kind of bounce.

WHO KNOWS if that will have been or will set up a tradable top on this swing since last friday.

Can't stop

I need to get back to the Doctor Who Fest.

we will see if there is a downswing here.

LIKE I HAVE SAID!!! A BROKE DICK DOG could run the market up from now through Jan 1. THEN RESULTING IN THE MOST WIDELY CALLED TOP I'VE EVER SEEN.

So I don't know... but something else seems more probable.

I'M NOT CALLING TOP... I've been very cautious about that... WE ARE OUTSIDE MY MODELS, Anything CAN HAPPEN IMHO.

I will add that SENTIMENT IS RIDICULOUS right now. EVEN on "The Call" the Bear in the Bear bull Debate was not Bearish, In fact he was more bullish over the next year, than the Bull.

paralisis of analysis

Many lines and variations. Counts and variations of counts.


Is it possible that is a 3 Push?

We are going to see, it's a tough bunch of charts. Don't drive yourself nuts.

I'm sorry, Did you not see this in my charts?

I just made that thicker, for you. but it's been there for weeks.

this would need to end segnificantly lower

for me to think we have a reversal.

I was doing some reading

Apparently from what I read "The Plan" is for "Everybody to sell" the Christmas rally stocks on next Monday!

Just letting everybody in on the plan everybody has.... just so that everybody knows...

either you sell them christmas eve close or the next trading day

after Christmas.

what would be very amusing

is if we just started puking right now.

Just a nice Christmas PUKE!! and unbelievable... Coal in the stockings... Puke

so

that has to end below at 11.20 for it to be a possible reversal candle.

xmas rally so far.

A tale of 2 possibilities

Get up and go time?... or False breakout into my Shooting star/Turnaround Tuesday!

Call Put Ratio

Tony was all Wet about Call Put ratios (hey, I'm just fucking around).

Call Put ratios are not bad Short term and Swing sentiment indicator. I hate writing this stuff because i'm happy for people to grind in ignorance.

I stole this chart btw... Hey... I'm on a roll. But the inicator points to a one day or half day pullback. or a good probability of a "Red Bar" the next day. Here is the thing, That is correct, but you have to realize that it's a Short term indicator, and the "half day pullback" could have already started, when you see the indicator. So for example if the futures are Deep in the red tomorrow, its probably better to buy them, because the Call Put pullback is probably over in the short term.

but if you look at the Extremes, the 3 standard deviation moves the moves outside the normal ok the Greater than 2 Standard Deviations. these tend to indicate an impending swing high on the daily. So +1-5days, a top should form.

But to toss all of that and just go into some EWT... it has a tendancy to be the Wave 3 Buying Climax, the short term pullback the next day tends to be Wave 4, then we build a wave 5 over the next few days.

now to go back to my Solid Model, if we still need a wave 5, it would be nice if it happend on some kind of "Breakout" between now and 11am, for a nice Turnaround Tuesday.

give us a nice Shooting Star and we are done with this swing.

But As i'm constantly harping... when I ran EWT the problem is I always felt like I was waiting for one last wave 5. So IMHO it is best to fly by the seat of my pants when looking for wave 5 Wave 5 wait mode.

Now if I had been watching CNBC and I saw Kudlow yelping and going YeeeeHaaa with Melissa Francis, and they looked like they wanted to throw down during "The Call"

I could say "Good Probability of a Top"... It's fucked to say it, but you are not just looking for enthusiasm... you want to see Froth on their lips.

Recap and some models

• The Model I love, which is my solid money maker, says this: The significant swing, needs to Pivot Last Monday or Friday or Today. It's roughly a +/- 1 day model.... So Maybe a spike higher tomorrow, would be possible, but would keep me cautious.

• My wave count EWT model, says that after this Upswing that started friday, its time for a Correction.

A "Breakout" of this Pennant, that I pointed out this weekend(Oh!!! you are welcome BTW), Can have this little pullback(like this afternoon), then it needs to run like a Bat out of Hell!... Into the well forcasted "Christmas Rally"

Other things to contemplate:

• That we are like a Boat Dead at sea, volatility dies and we just hang here, for a few (more) months.
• I have talked about the Most Widely called top in existence, the Post Christmas sell off. We can make a case for this by suggesting that in the impossible to calculate model, the blind following the blind is a valid strategy... but in that case... wouldn't gold still be strong? Just a thought.
• I also must mention that; if my good model Fails, that the other, sell off hope is a Game Theory sell, before the end of the year. Some kind of top a few days 3+ before the end of the year this is a Weak Model, but not impossible.
• If no "Most Widely Called top in existence", we could run through Mid Jan or mid Feb, then have some form of correction. (We could also suggest that as the blind follow the blind, and sell off some time mid Jan, we could have a nice Swing Low. Suddenly reversing on everyone to the upside.)

To just hit on some Reality, the market looks and Feels like it will never correct again. Sentiment is off the Hook... this says Intermediate high to me, BUT I HATE THE IDEA OF A JAN1 high... Which is complete Recency bias from last year.... It feels Like this JUST CAN'T Happen... but never say never.

I know... I'm trying to sort of be on vacation... which means I'm just kind of sitting here, pretending I'm Doctor Who, and trying to ignore the squiggles.

This is the jist of what I think; if today was not the High, the next GOOD chance for an intermediate swing high is mid Jan.

I would still give say a 60% chance of a significant swing high(maybe not intermediate) anytime in the next 2 weeks. This just makes me neutral if we can set a new high in the next 2 days.

Just to be Extra Clear... I VERY MUCH DOUBT A LONG TERM HIGH, even though the Sentiment indicators make it possible.

I have been out in the nightmare Christmas stuff, and the only shelves I see, that are empty are things priced $10 and below. I'm not sure I have seen anything of significance that they are sold out of. I also have yet to see people with any form of "Big Bags", and even few people with Many bags. BUT THIS IS STILL A MINOR SAD SAMPLE.

doing wave counts

1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C....

when in doubt... Waist your time doing wave counts... LOL

I've Seen you...... And you are good!

We were up some 120 pts, and I'm just sitting here, and I have no idea if Melissa and Kudlow are making the fuck me eyes... and I'm seriously sick of watching that nonsense. So it's just me and the Tardis!

I've watched that CNBC bullshit every day since april... and I swear it's making my brain Rotten!...

But to point out the Fucking obvious... for the market to break out... it has to break out.

another note on gold

The new Commercial is how to get Leveraged in gold...

My call

Ugh... I don't want to write this...

The question I have is that, I'm not sure we "Orgazumed", I'm trying to pretend it's the holidays and catch up on my reading and contemplate the significance of "Doctor Who".

I will say that on the trade of last resort, there isn't going to be that much short covering, which makes me think that it will take more downside with a reversal, to generate any form of " SuperSpike" or blow off top...Money shot... big finish... whatever the porn industry calls it.

The good indicator is that Many people "see the signs" in the market tea leaves, and in front of the Santa Rally MEME refuse to step against the market. To me, this is a bearish indicator.

So, all I can say is I'd be Sell Biased. I'm not sure if that is; "At the open", "Midday", "end of the Week" or "After the Hollidays".

I will say, that I think there is a Solid chance >60% that we have seen the highs for the year, Which doesn't get you anywhere because there are only about 12 trading days left, and 60% is a bullshit hedge from my end.

Alright enough "Opening Bell" back to doctor Who.

Bull Ratio

The bad part about this chart is how long the time frame is, and keeping that in scale. So I ran lines of the tops and bottoms. Doing it, It seems like this is as much of a leading indicator as you will find. Of course in black I pointed out places where it was not reliable. In fact you can look at it and say that it's 75% reliable +/- 3 weeks.... LOL.. it's funny and not.

The Realy Interesting Uninteresting chart.

I've tried to talk about this in the past. It always seems to me that all the oscillator or indicators are something very simple:
for the most part, they are just a variation on a moving average. Sort of Too Smart by half Moving Average. For the most part say something that you should be able to see by noticing a few red bars. Only you are only 2 red bars into it, and they are 5 or 10 depending on the indicator..

I posted all the sentiment charts, and Please realize what they are saying: in a poll of 200 some odd people 7 days ago, we spent 2 days calculating... and this is how we quantified their strategy of 10 days ago. Any new information from the past 10 days, has yet to be assimilated into the data. +/- 10 days, there could be a current variation of up to 50% real time.

So... In this Theme I give you Rydex.

You would think that when you build a chart like this, instead of showing the points in time when the indicator Flashed, You would show where the indicator was when the market was at an inflection point.

Then show where the indicator was. Let me just interperate(*wink wink* that is a joke) this. What is interesting, is that it tends to spike then reverse, and that is a top but unreliable. In fact one could make a case that BELOW 1 has a high correlation with an impending top in the next 7 days. As opposed to Above 2 sell. Which works, but for maybe 1 day.

I'm actually laughing here this morning, because I've given these charts way too much time. This above chart is great.... Guaranteed to be both Right and Wrong. Since it's flashed both Buy and Sell.... SO FOR SURE IT WILL BE CORRECT if you buy Or is it sell??? you are going to have a Winner. Rydex... Rorschach of the week.

Doctor Who, Season 3

This is on the schedule for today! Season 3

Bring out the dead

Nice to wake up to SPX 1350.... Care of Michael Darda.

I thought he died in the Market Crash.

5 more days until it is over.

More sentiment

Well... look who the chart thief is this time.

I do have to mention how much I hate this indicator, since it lags 3-10 days, based on how it's "Calculated". As I mock the Calculation, I do have to mention that my own sentiment indicator is "Calculated" in the same way, and has fewer samples, but also allows me to re weight the data.

I also want to give a word of caution about how with low volume, some of the Put Call Ratios, have a higher chance of sampling error.

Like I've said... SENTIMENT IS OFF THE CHARTS. I'd add the Rydex to this, but again that sucker lags 7 days, and has such huge weekly swings, it's hard to find it reliable Other, than for hind site.

Sentiment Alert!

Tony and I have been in a morning long Argument/discussion about market direction and if Barry, is "Spot on" or if he is; "Lookout Below", and "Get Wicked Short" Barry, the Monday after Bear Collapsed. Not to mock; since we are all susceptible to the Prevailing sentiment.

As I just presented the idea that Barry sort of "Diggs in" on his forecast, at inflection points.

(In case he reads this, Not that he is Long term wrong; Just that it's important Sentiment, for some sort of swing.)

Just as another indicator of sentiment, we get into Discussions +/- a few days of a significant High.

The Real Snoozfest for next week

How about those 2 patterns for a Year end Snoozer... of course

you are mostly talking about a 2 swing pattern... so...

The Range Trade

All the Traders are Wet about the Range. I want to point out that in the model you get a range trade before Aversion.... But that is beside the point.

So, If all the traders have those levels in their sights... you know it will work out well, trading the "Breakout" either way.

I guess the saving grace would be that it's not like I've heard about the range from CNBC, so that is something.

But I wanted to point that MEME out to readers.

Side note.

I also was watching "The Doctor" and they had Characters called "Adherents of the Repeated meme."

But since a MEME is just and idea, and they manifest themselves by being repeated And don't actually exist. But here is a picture. But as pictured the MEME Was: "A gift of peace in all good faith"

Do you think an american audience would get that.. No, we are busy with Pat Buchanan having a hissy fit today saying "We are all in it for ourselves", Which is of course true here.... But reflect "How is that working for us?"

but don't doubt, Most people are in it for themselves.

Preperations

Seems unlikely that we will have the most widely called top in market history, but as I sit here I thought the same thing last year... Of course everyone expects the same thing that happened last year to happen this year.... which would put my money on the Feb pull back.

None of this means that it won't happen though.

As of next week, it will be all low volume through Jan 4, plenty of low volume.

When I listen to CNBC... when I'm not watching Doctor Who....

They sound like someone rang the bell and that everything is fine..

Zero Growth, 17% real unemployment. one in 8 homes missing a payment on their home. All the Retail numbers suck.... etc etc....

No worries everything is fine.

Hollidays

Tony just loves when I pimp shit. Foolishly I watched 5 episodes of Doctor Who on Sunday. So it looks like I'll be in Full Doctor Who Marathon for at least the weekend, if not through next week.

Some fucking trader is rapping on my TV

Traders are filled with Hubris, and the Christmas Rally MEME continues.... You know me... I say COAL!

But they are filled with some serious Ego right now... Lots of Freeper Hubris....

Monday is the day for their Mutual fund monday MEME.

I keep seeing all these fucking Jackass traders, talking shit.... in 5-10 years that will be no more.

The Christmas Sell off

Seems like it's arrived. I wonder where it's going?

We are close to the "Range bound" that they all talk about.

Redux...WTF do I say shit like that...

I think Redux was added to my working vocabulary because of The Matrix Movies, which I only saw the first of, and half of the second before I decided I had better shit to do.

Redux of the Death Spiral.

There is a new poll which has the Lunatic fringe of the Mouth Breathers(Dick Armey, who has a Jr. 5th Grade level eduction in the American Revolution, Which is better than those with what seems like a 5 year old's understanding."no Taxation Without... Tea ownership...er lets throw things that are Taxed.")

But the second part of our Death spiral, as we are caught in our own tragic game theory between fiscal responsibility(How if we just kill a few wars), and doing what we need to do to get the economy going.

Let me also add that one of the things the Utopian Philosopher King Adam Smith, suggested got in the way of Prosperity, is Government Corruption.

But It's a Victory lap, I won't go on; being right about this(so far), Since it's depressing as hell.

Helots!!!

I've seen you Masterbate.... and you are good..

Sorry, I couldn't resist. That image is in my pictures where I post charts from. The dollar is going NUTS. That is a fairly significant Failed Test, and I'm not a fool... that looks like a downSwing.

I Hear bad news about Greece. Lets see if the Senate boots uncle ben

a little chive

HealthCare

On Le news, they are all worked up. Many people have finally figured out that this was a No win, As I suggested months ago, the win would have been to have not passed anything and made the republicans responsible for it. Then in a few years when it implodes, you can blame them for no reform.

oops

Bernie Sanders was pissed

Quantitative Tightening.

Tony Suggested we needed a reason to sell off. How about Quantitative tightening. I hate to point it out to the market, that is afraid of tightening over the past few weeks, that is what has been going on... Quantitative Tightening.

If you want a reason to sell off, how about that the fed can neither inflate nor deflate.

THe Fed Trade

I've been tracking a trade I heard about, which was to Fade the initial direction that the market makes on the FOMC announcment.

Ever since I've tracked it, it tends to work for at least the rest of the day.

My note to congress

Don't let governing get in the way of getting Re-Elected(Tongue-N-Cheek)

Shuck and Jive....

I'm not sure if when I say this, if it's racist... it referes to when a slave defers to the whims of the master... I guess the master being the whims of the master.

or that the Bears just keep the raindance going and try and pretend they aren't wrong.

So, New highs on the week, On monday I suggested that the market had to turn on monday or the bears were Fucked. My rule of thumb says that holds true.... still just a rule of thumb.

I just think that the probability is much higher for a sell off after Jan 1 at this point... when we will have what could be the most widely called top in market history.

and the way I think, that means it has to happen either before or after.... which is why I've started suggesting Feb.. or maybe a mid Jan options expiration top..

Like I said the sentiment is here for a solid top, I'm not sure they are "Enthusiastic" but a nice 200 pt move would get them there. I'm just keeping an eye on it, and ...

I suggested that what we needed was to see the market end down 50 on the day.

I'm neutral at this point.... Other than that I'm just doing the Gleason Soft shoe:

I'm just not going to waist everyone's time with "Tut Tut Looks like rain"