This is as clear as an elliot wave gets.... This is a wash out... Near term...
On the dow this is 11,300 To 10,500 on the DOW.
1222-1160 on the SPX.
It would be good to see a wash out.....
I still speculate on a real crash in October as the stars align for the worst Christmas we have ever seen..... Until 2009.....
I do believe we are in for a 2009 Come to Jesus on the economy.... and I'm a total Atheist.
And if you think that this move today was about service sector economy, that is only part of it... My bets are it's more about that we will have a wash out in CDO's in the next couple months.... That will happen that market will get flooded.. the municipal bonds will get saved, but half the money markets in the country will either take a loss, or the companies that own them will have to take write downs.
The market is going to try and price that in..... we will rally till q2 when we see what a disaster it is in the economy... then the government will work out a massive bail out plan... which will provide massive inflationary pressure........MASSIVE...
This is just a Rough Thesis for the next 2 years....
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
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