Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, February 28, 2008


This is the 4 day move......... Let me just warn that in a bearish environment we should have only had a 3 wave ABC correction... Represented by the pink.... Green and Red..... Now the second green and that last blue representing a healthy 4th and 5th wave... though the 5the wave barely made a new high... does show..... some returning Bullishness to the market.
That black line... marked by the 2 lows... Obviously what we want to see is a move below that followed by a lower high...... then confirm the low... This pattern shows healthy distribution.... followed by waining strength... we have had 2 healthy sell offs in the past 2 days....... this feels right to me...
The futures show we should break that quite nicely this morning, if they hold..... but One would expect us to Fade that gap... then I would expect that to be a possible entry point...... Also we could just have a partial retrace of that gap then a reversal.... What I'm getting at is that it's hard to fade 50+ point gaps.... Regardless look for some strength.... if you feel that strength fades... it's a good entry point........
I'm not telling you to trade or how to trade...... I'm going to be cautious about posting trades, because I think it's being distracting to my trades.... I'd be careful these bearish moves could be short.... once we hit the lower part of the trading range... expect a solid fight by the bulls... maybe even a 50% retirement from here to the bottom of the range as a rebound.....
I sort of mentioned this.. the fast move up... means most the bulls are trapped at the top.... and should be running ASAP
Another warning... a sudden announcement of the 3 billion bail out of ambac.. that we already know about...... well.. more short covering rally maybe...... but those rallies have been getting smaller.

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