Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Numbers....

As we go through financial stats.... and we hear "these are the same numbers as the "end" of the 2000 recession....... we have to remember that we need the numbers to hit the beginning of the 2000 recession or the 90's recession... and then move to the stats similar to the end of the recession....... not the other way around.

So..... as we hear.. these inflation number are like the 1982 numbers....

we are in the beginning of this... so we are in the early 70's numbers... and we have to move from here through the 80's inflation....

so the commodities trade is just starting.... and the bubble will be at the end..... One idea I have is that like gold doubled in the last year of the gold bubble in 1980... and it hit $800....

At the end of this commodities bubble..... I'll look for a move from say $1800 in gold to $3K.... but this is 4 years out... or so..... a Hyperbolic 5th wave move.... above the $2K range.....

If I were a General fighting the last SuperCycle.....

but know we wont' fight the old battle... this will be the new one....

Nixon devalued the dollar massively... and we won't see that kind of move.... but we will see similar accelerated inflation... With some charming Deflation......

immovable object and unopposable force

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