Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Ben

So.... I'm still a fan of our fed chairman..... Let's throw out some pro's and Con's

CON:

  1. Inflation is High...... Way Higher than reported.
  2. Fed never managed to get maximum employment last cycle.
  3. They are having a tough time communicating...and aren't adapting as fast as one would hope.. by this I mean... they need to "Transition" to the new ways of doing things.. so as to not make it so hard on the markets.
  4. ... Ben Bernanke, acts like a child... sticking to the "letter of the law" and counting on the fact that following the Rules of what the mandate of the fed are.... problem is... in the Real world, we have to behave in a "spirit of the law" way... especially as a public servant... you have to do what the economy needs to do... not what the Rules say... if someone is about to get killed, and you have the power to stop it from happening, you have a moral responsibility to step out of the rules and do what is needed... not just "do your job."

PRO:

  1. The fed raised the rate in fall of 2006... when it was apparent that we still didn't' have a healthy economy.
  2. The fed waited to aggressively raise rates... and when they did they did it aggressively.... behaving in less of a Greenspan... fool in the shower... Idiot in the Tub.
  3. They are threatening to raise rates aggressively soon.
  4. This is Paul Volcker classic Aggressive fed Behavior... and I think they have every intention of getting inflation under control... I just wish they were working on real inflation.

I do believe in the deflationary effects of the housing bust, and the loss of equities value... and the loss of the "Shadow banking system".

The X factors on this is how much "De-coupling" will there be... I'm a re-coupler... but by this I mean that the effects will be globally felt... but... less that in the past...

and the deflationary effects of the death of the Shadow banking system... are... un metric-able....

Quote of the day from yesterday:

Talking Head, "what should investors do with their money?"

Kevin Ferry-Cronus investments "Take your family out to dinner."

I'm a huge Kevin ferry fan.

Now today from THE GREAT Rick Santelli. The only real reason to watch CNBC."recessions are a financial enema for a sick animal."

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