Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, February 22, 2008

so... where are we?

I had a chance to read through and goof off most of this trading day....

I'm surprised the market didn't' reverse itself....

umn.....

when we test the lows.... I know the target I have is 124 SPY.... umnnnn I have a hard time believing it myself...

and so when we hit the lows... what is the Theory? we have to hit it 3 times to break through....

so.. I haven't looked at it but what is it 11500 or 12000? umn... I bet we get there today for the first retest... but not 11500 but 12000 roughly or we settle just short of it.

it's hard to not cover significant cash at that point..... I know 124 on the spy is the target... but we should see one hell of a fight from 12000-11000... it's hard to recommend that fight to anyone.... and some of it is news dependant...

Worse is we are going to see a "Rescue" of the insurers... which will be false... I'm not sure how it will play but ... the "Rescues" I hear are bearish for the banks. but also bearish for financial Armageddon.

my advice to traders is try and be nimble through 12000 .... and sort of prep for it.... There will Be Chop...

Elliot wave, you can look at yesterday being wave 1... and today wave 3.... retest wave 4? maybe... then a wave 5 violation of the low.

but I wouldn't' doubt we will get a bump next Thursday and Friday and maybe Monday.... just to dump stock off on the Fund folks....

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