I swear... we will be 0 on the day....
I have to stick to my guns..... for the most part...
It usually pays to believe in ones own thesis that we will retest or retest and fail
I'm on a space above and beyond thing today.....
and the pancakes realy let me down.....
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Shorts are keeping market from dropping on bad news?
Barry Ritholtz thinks the market is oversold:
http://tinyurl.com/2cwfyt
...and he tends to be very bearish. The technicals point to continued lack of conviction either way.
It's murder trying to call every half point up or down. I'm thinking of just
1) shorting tech names (DELL, SMH),
2) buying diversified energy (XLE)and especially natgas (APA, APC, NRGY),
3)buying some IYR (real estate) and
4)buying XLG...
5)buying GLD and SLV
all in 5 equal parts
and just let 'em ride til next week. What's the worst that could happen?
My thesis is that there arn't any people being shaken out of the market.. Nor is there much new short interest comming into the market...
if you can, getting out of the way of this consolidation adn making a move once we make a new high or a new low, that would be the move to make.
As I was getting at this morning about us going down 50 then up 50... they are symetrical moves...
simaler to newtons third law of physics it takes an up move to create a down move...and visaversa
which was why I was fairly sure we would fade the gap this morning, meaning move up for some of the morning.
I also was not too suprised that we couldn't break down.... a break down usually happens from the top of the trade channel... and from a violation of the top of the trade channel....
The smart thing is to wait for this move to resolve.. then chase the move either up or down....
it makes me nervous that most the technissions think this will resolve down....
I've also said, I expect a realy good bounce either after this resolves down or later....
I do tend to say what I think is going to happen, but trust me I'm ready to flip my trade on a dime.. in case I'm wrong... cause it wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong.
I also, wouldn't be too afraid of going long some stuff.. it will recover from a down move.
I think we are waiting for some resolution on the bond insurers.. and we may just muddle till then.
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