Morning,

The safe play is to be in cash and wait for the range bound action to resolve... We should move up or down 50 pts on the SPX one way or the other.

I'm always cautious of trying to play this like the 2000 recession, too many people are trying to play this market like that recession.

Too many generals playing the last war...

with that as the impetus, we will try and trade like that, with 5-7% run ups then pull backs to new lows....

My long term expectation is for a series of Recessions, 5-6 over the next 10 years... This will be a classic bear market... Every time it looks like we are clear... it will get bloody again. Layoffs, consumer slowing, Strip malls and big box stores(individual, not chains) going out of business, the whole bit.