Crazy

I'm fully willing to admit my Skewed side... But understand, I look at all of these things as

Hypothesis... In a Scientific way. Not Proof, Just Ideas, and Hypothesis, based on slim available evidence.

I try and look at the possibilities, and watch and make bets based on the most likely outcome. I try and cut losses as fast as possible, and find the Safest entry points I can find.

I'm always prepared to be Wrong.... Cause it won't be the first time, and won't be the last. Most Models I have take us to the 120 level in the SPY. But there are some Possible outlier models which take us into Rally mode.

Also, in market action, I'm starting to see, Rapid volatility... intraday moves, by the Day traders... This kind of feels like it's leading to something.... Also, I think the Down futures, will be purchased at the bell buy the day traders, and could indicate some morning upside.... I'm hoping for some slightly up futures, that could be Sold at the bell.

I watched Kudlow last night.... and get this for Analysis....

The cisco CEO at 1513 showed the top when he said things were Great globally... now at 1315 he said "sees some slowing"... That shows the bottom...... cause he is buying the top and selling the bottom in tech.....

Got that from a trader, and Doug kass.... I dig doug... but seriously.
I shit you not it's always possible for a near term bottom... But It just shows how people are throwing Darts at a board with Equities.

Mid Feb Rate cut..... I just figured it out.... This is the bet.... the monolines crash in 2 weeks, market crashes, Fed has to cut!!!!... That is the bet....

This decline from here to 120-115 on the SPY could take that long... and we could see a dip to the 10K level.

I am just talking my book.