For those of you who, don't follow the blog that much... on the weekends my brain tends to shift it's Watchful eye from the market to things more esoteric... And its 4am... I almost slept in.....
I'm about to fire up "Trading places"... cause I've seen "Wall-Street" too many times. ahhhh a celebration of the end of the commodities bull market of the 70's-80's.
WOW!!! I didn't realize... They are trading Commodities from Pennsylvania...... Wow, I thought it was New York Centric.... Was there a Pennsylvania commodities exchange??? or are they trading Nymex and CME...
Not to be manic... you know what would be a great book... "History of the markets as seen in Film"
Ooops there it is the CME....
For those of you not keeping score at home, Grodge made me feel bad(deserving) because of my attitude, and lack of appreciation for my father..... so I Hung with the old man last night. We went to wendy's for dinner and talked about Bond investment.... quick update... I have almost nothing to talk with him about.
I'm having this weird thing about the Timber and Tone of most Male to Male Speaking.... it's almost barbaric, in it's chest pounding stupidity.......
I also purchased a book about bonds... since I know less than nothing.... it's funny when I say these things.. when honestly there were all those business and investment classes.... This is the conversation I had with the person at the register..... I find this stuff weird... and Yes I know it's weird that I find it weird...
her,"Hi."
Me, "How are you?" and I smile.
"I'm well, and you?"
"Great!, You have a book for me. 'all about bonds' "
"well, you are going to have to give me your name, so I can look it up."
"Well, you are going to have to ask me for it, in order to get my name...... Eric."
(I'm mimicking/mocking her here, pointing out the passive aggressive nonsense in her statement, which wasn't a question. And could have been more simply phrased.)
She gets the book, comes back....
"Are you a member of our Book Club?"
"No. Nor would I like to be, But thank you for asking"
(Just pointing out that, I'm 2 steps ahead of her, and she doesn't realize it.... she could have generated some 'street cred' by being Petty after my earlier pettiness... and saying 'but I didn't ask.')
"That will be $20.50.".... Not to get off on an inflation discussion... but when I wasn't looking, books are $20 now!!!! I thought $12 was ridiculous.
I have a Twenty Dollar Bill... so I pull out my wallet, and the cobwebs pop out of it. Pull out my visa debit.
Her,"is it credit or debit?"
"Debit..... Oops.. run it as Credit."... I have 2 issues here, first if someone gets my pin number either through video or seeing it, and has my card number... it's a misdemeanor to use them.... if a crime at all, besides Theft. When Signing my name falsely is a Felony Fraud.... Issue 2 is... that I have no clue what my pin number is... since I don't usually use it... and am such a tight ass, and from experience... That is not a conversation you want to have with a clerk at a register, not knowing your pin number is heresy in our consumer society
Have I ever mentioned that since I was a kid I wanted to be a broker... Maybe I got the idea from trading places... or maybe it was quicksilver........ WOW!!! "QuickSilver messenger service" is a BAND from the 70's.....
Stock market movies
Keyword:
Stockbroker
Stock market
Stock market crash
Stock market crash 1929
well... that is about all the fragmented thoughts I have for a morning.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Classic Weekend Blogging
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5 comments:
Never saw Quicksilver, but I like Jamie Gertz (she's from my hometown-- Chicago.) I'll have to watch it.
I always thought Trading Places was kinda cheesy, class-warfare stuff. Entertaining, but not because of any insights on the "Market", only because of shtick and seeing the powerbrokers go down.
Wall Street, on the other hand, is a better portrayal of market psychology, with ruthless winners and pathetic losers. Hobbesian.
Good to hear you "bonded" with your dad. I'm not preaching by any means, but both my parents are dead and I sometimes look back and wonder if I should have been more patient and listened to their wisdom more (no matter how twisted it may have seemed at the time.) My Catholic guilt, perhaps.
I'll get Cramer's Real Money at the library-- they have about 50 copies that are never checked out. Right now I'm reading Alexander Elder's Come Into My Trading Room which is very good overview on how to trade. Also, I'm listening to Taleb's Black Swan, good look at the fallacy of causation, but not as well written as David Hume's classic. Taleb seems kinda arrogant.
I've been busy this week and working this weekend too. I meant to ask your opinion of the classic Elliot technicals on Thursday with 2 or 3 retracements of exactly 38%. Not sure what it meant, but I found it interesting to see. Everyone following Chart Astrology I suppose.
Have a good weekend.
... If you don't realize... I get to be very.... Well I think everybody has something to offer... even if it's from a contrarian point of view...
Real money... Though everyone including cramer, admit he is a clown. Is Damn near a Bible of investing. And throws out a tremendous amount of what is the "Wall Street Playbook". Infact I keep thinking I should re-read it.
Movies are for entertainment, and have more ability to Mis-inform us about life, than provide any form of education. Except that it's interesting that many movies show us the "5th Wave of things" ie... When holywood notices a trend, that can show us the end of it.
Trading Spaces... end of the commodities Bull....
Wall street- end of one of the greatest Stock Bull markets.
but I agree with you about it reflecting Hobbesianisum.
Last time I spent time thourougly looking at the Elliot waves was thursday or so.
Like a fighter "everyone has a plan untill they get hit".. I'm still recovering from friday market action. At about 3:50ET I was almost shaking from that shock. I guess my point is I'm just bairly trying to get my "Tail out from between my legs"
Retracements... I look at it as retracements show how much conviction there is in a move. 23% shows a ton of conviction in the direction of the momentum. and 76% shows litle conviction...
There is a book, or something where somone breaks down what certain "Retacements" by historic stats... show.. or mean... if you find it let me know..
and as the last week has shown... the inside moves-consolidation- sideways moves... show indecision. But as we have seen... in those situations of indecision.. the most likly thing will be a return to the Primary trend.
Last I was counting... the Thursday morning high was a finish of a Wave 5... On friday the Midday correction sideways was looking wave 2.. and starting wave 3.... which was circumvented by the news back into a "Wave 2"... My Quick thoughts are that we will get an up open... then we will restart a wave 3... which will be slow and wait for some resolution on the monoline.... A good monoline solution will cause a wave 4... a bad one will extend a wave 3.... Even with a good solution. I still think we will get a follow up wave 5.
But it shows that we will probably Retest. or that we will retrace to the 23% point of the Jan low.... I think that still is a Very likly scenerio, Even with a Monoline solution....
I was reading some talk about how the Government and the ratings agencys are coluding, and will never allow a "sudden" downgraid. The worst resolution possible would be a split up "disolution" of the companies.. and the Muni bonds will get handed to buffett.
We also could go through 2 years of litigation....
I will take some charts and throw out my version of Chart-Astrology this weekend... or monday morning
Were you thinking of Tim Bulkowski? The Kirk report recently had a long interview with him and he has written books on the statistics of certain chart patterns. He has a good website too.
http://thepatternsite.com/rank.html
I'll admit that much of it is over my head and seems like voo-doo, but he presents very detailed stats-- he must have a form of high-functioning Asperger's to do such tedious work. He gives probabilities like "after an Eve and Adam Double-Bottom there will be a throwback of 5% that occurs 53% of the time", or something like that. Seems somewhat esoteric to me.
Friday was weird. I left the office at noon and fortunately set tight trailing stops on nearly everything. They triggered and I booked a few nice gains, but only learned about it after the close. Unfortunately I did not set stops on SDS and still have some overnight. Yikes! I was probably lucky to have been away from the screen because I may have tried to think too much when the short covering occurred. My brain may have prevented me from getting out of the way!
Retracements... I was kinda wondering if IWM would retrace 38% like it did Thursday a couple times. That would put it up to 70-71 and if the 3 or 5 minute tick turns down at that point, it might drop to the low 60's. I like your view that the amount of retracement is proportional to the level of conviction. I just cannot believe (oops there's that word again) that Friday's 11th hour bump up has any conviction.
Manipulation... If you were Ben Bernanke what would you do? You can't just come out and say, "OK here's the deal: we have a few hundred billion dollars of bad debt and we are going to have to unwind it slowly over the next 24 months, so sit back and watch this slow motion train wreck unfold before your eyes." No, you wouldn't say that. Instead, you would do exactly what they are doing... add liquidity in spurts to see if the markets respond. If they don't, then add a little more... like my grandma did, adding garlic over several hours to make a fine simmering marinara. The only difference is that Bernanke's brew is toxic and he knows it but there's nothing else he can do; he's stuck cleaning up Greenspan's mess.
As traders, I guess we have to catch the fits and starts as the market percolates down to the next level, but there will be fits of confidence and short-covering that can wreak havoc with bets on SKF, SDS and TWM. My surmise is that the pain will come back and longs will lose confidence as earnings are revised downward and the stark realities set in again.
Bear markets are tough to trade-- even for bears.
Exactly... Hey, also...don't hesitate to challenge me on things... I know how crazy it all sounds. and living in my own personal Bubble isn't healthy...
I'm not sure about your personality type... but as they say... it's more an art TA. and as many lines as I draw, and fib. I retrace.... I find it more like a QB on the field.. Try and limit risk, and live with your best judgment... and have "Back out" plans.... Live to fight another day.
I still have tendancy's to chase moves... when Truly, I should always just wait for the next opertunity. But if I am going to "Chase" a move. I find that doing it as quickly as possible is the best stratigy.
so, again I didn't take it as preachy at all Re: my old man.... just goood perspective.
Like I posted I took some Ultra short finacials at 108... Just a little and I could lose some money... but like your sds, I will bet there is a 60% chance we will still break tward the downside again. monday or tuesday... and you could get either a Zero Loss exit, or a small win.
But... there have been plenty of times in my past where I was smarter to just "Take the loss"... Freeing up the cash for future opertunites.
There was some time when this was happening, that i Toyed with clearing my stops.
And if we treat this "Bear Market" like a Bull... if you hang onto something long enough... it will probably turn around... if it's a short.
Best of all Bull worlds we break to 1450.... Shrug.
The other thing is.. Your numbers are off... The Shadow banking system.. is a loss of 200-400 Trillion in liquidity... maybe the current write offs are 1%.. but this could be unbelievably bad...
and like Japan... there is no amount of "liquidity" they can pump at the fed, to reflate it.
but like all monetary policy/economics.. seems like it's all Theory.
good news is that besides the banks that hold that crap.. it doesn't hold it's Fractional Reserve... increased Deflationary "CRUNCH".. But it's still a shit load of money, to be "Missing"
Re: "believe Friday's 11th hour bump up has any conviction"
I'm not sure where I got this, but some times you have to look at it like it's people running out of the movie theater... and the move was more relative to Very Few people.. running for the exits, very quickly.. Though Violent and filled with energy... it's probably not as significant as it looks... Millions of "Day Traders" jumping out of the market "in 15 minutes".. Yes it causes a 200 pt reversal.... but it's not that significant in the context of the Market.
I have some interesting ideas on future market action... I will bet that if we get an up opening on Monday.. I bet we won't see that high.. until there is a "good" resolution to "all" the monolines.. that is a possible level that all that good news is "cooked in".
On a personal note... after nearly being in shock, as to how well it went for me, and how poorly it could have gone... I was toying with Taking a few days off.
of course that will never happen, as much as I'd like to dream.
I have a great post to write up about my local paper.... who knows when I'll get to it.
oh, and quicksilver is more of a cycling movie than a stock movie... but the main character is a trader who has a breakdown... then finds redemption. it's worth the time..
worst part is he gives up this hot ballerina for jamie gertz... both hot... but give up a "Blond little Ballerina"
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