MARKETS OUTLOOK: Stock futures are sharply lower Thursday after Dubai's surprise move to restructure its corporate jewel - Dubai World - hit sentiment in Europe with markets deep in the red.
Joshua Raymond at City Index said that while investors remain generally upbeat, with the VIX index - the measure of markets' volatility - below levels seen prior to Lehman Brothers' collapse, the global economic recovery remains fragile.
"People are much more confident than they were, but with Black Friday, [the beginning of the traditional Christmas shopping season] this week, we need to see confidence on the high street," he said.
Joshua Raymond at City Index said that while investors remain generally upbeat, with the VIX index - the measure of markets' volatility - below levels seen prior to Lehman Brothers' collapse, the global economic recovery remains fragile.
"People are much more confident than they were, but with Black Friday, [the beginning of the traditional Christmas shopping season] this week, we need to see confidence on the high street," he said.
We will see if it holds through friday.
2 comments:
It's still the dollar. EurUSD now down to 1.50500 which will be support. Next resistance is 1.53 from last fall. that might be the end of Wave 5.
C-n-C has a reasonable thesis on the dollar.
http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/parsing-fomc-minutes/
Personally, I got some DZZ (dbl short gold) at the close yesterday as a swing trade... and it may be a bit early. I think the EURUSD will flirt with this 1.50500 level but can certainly get up to the 1.53 before reversing. I'm betting it won't be a spike in the next week. I like C-n-C's 50-dMA thesis: when it's more than a std deviation above it, expect it come back to the 50-d and it's tradeable.
In addition to C-n-C's comments, i would add that the next meme may be "the fed is going to get hawkish" and the dollar may rise in anticipation of the anticipation.
Ritholtz made some comment (I don't have the link) that about the time the NFP job losses are <100K, "everyone" will be worried about the end of fed easing and dollar protection. Ritholtz was spot-on with his thesis about the market turning positive "when the NFP lob losses are less than the month before". In effect, it's all about jobs at this point.
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