If you're short, I'm the sucker going long....: more from the chive

Monday, November 2, 2009

more from the chive

5 comments:

Tony said...: Sentiment. Now seems like the time to pay attention to sentiment... as the market teeters and could either 1) drop suddenly in an overt warning, or 2) unwind slowly in an orderly pullback.

As long as we have some bullish sentiment, the unwind will be orderly. I have no way of judging sentiment in an objective manner except for using T.Lo's oscillators, and these seem to point toward a more orderly unwind, the "volatility dot" notwithstanding.; November 3, 2009 at 6:54 AM
Eric said...: Well, Mr Payton

the hard ting will be if we get an upswing. But sentiment wise, every time it bounces 3 digits they get euphoric and complacent.; November 3, 2009 at 11:21 AM
Tony said...: It'a still all about the dollar and UUP is now above 22.73 which was another support level going back to early October.

Complacency. How do we measure it? The Vix?

As for the Payton reference: when I went net short last week, I had to go with the best performing Bear in history: Walter.

For more highlights: http://www.chicagobears.com/WalterPayton.asp; November 3, 2009 at 11:35 AM
Eric said...: I'm using complacency in a fairly loose way. I guess what I'm saying is they see the rally, and sort of assume we will be making new highs again.

then we decline more, we get another bounce.. and it's all "OK! now we go back to new highs"

you and I both know that isn't quite how it works, it needs to bounce and they need to doubt the move....

all of that is just the proverbial Slope of hope. All the Stories about Roubini, right now seem to mock him, There was a story in Gawker that they were putting him on full Mock mode.; November 3, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Eric said...: http://gawker.com/5395179/nouriel-roubini-still-partying-with-hot-chicks-while-the-world-ends/gallery/; November 3, 2009 at 11:52 AM

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