sticking with the original call... I did hedge right? I was just going along like the rest of the sheep.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
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9 comments:
I pick Tuesday/Wednesday.
I pick my nose.
Barry sent me an email at 3:30pm saying that the 8750 level HAD BETTER HOLD... or else.
The market then dropped 250 more points!! in the next 29 minutes!!!
Hilarious. Now it's just getting funny. (Where is that in the Kubler-Ross stages?)
if this goes till next wed, it won't be over.
I don't understand why barry would be surprised. When you talk like he has for the past 2 years. How can you be surprised that the market gets into a panic about 3 trillion in MBS derivatives, that are going to crush the financial system. and 10 trillion in alternate derivatives that take out the rest of capitalisum.
If you are truly Laissez-faire you should be dancing in the street.
It's stunning that his call for support was taken out in a matter of minutes.
I would guess that he is sticking with his conclusion that since 8750 was taken out, the next support is 7250.
Perhaps he is still laissez-faire and holding his cash for the buying opportunity.
we will be in the 6000 range by Tuesday, Selling begets more selling, begets more redemption's.
He has long only funds, that are getting killed. Most the hedge funds will be lucky to last another month.
If we start seeing them collapse, it will be a good sign we are almost done with this nonsense.
Seems like a good contrary indicator, but if this persists, we will have a 50/50 chance of broad systemic failure.
Seems hard to stop at this point. AIG has weeks.
if another person talks about capitulation, like that hasn't come and gone... and after capitulation... there is still despair.
Are you trolling your won site, or being serious?
6000.
we will lose 500 pts tomorrow maybe 300...
then another 1000-1500 to do a finaly capitulation.
That seems proportionally right.
But I'm numb. I did a chart that showed a fib in the mid 7K range. But once the 40% range breaks.... we just have to price in the great depression meme, which is 60%.
the hedge funds that have to keep selling the market just hoping to stay afloat, have to blow up.
I'm just talking here.
This is all just crazy.
the old Vix the VXO in 1987 hit 150.
it's in the 70's now. Things have to get twice as bad to capitulate.
We easily need a 1500 pt day to wash out.
Mad Max, Guns & Ammo time.
I maintain that our culture today would not tolerate a Great Depression the same way as in the 1930's. We're too soft, too much into instant gratification. Our collective tolerance for discomfort is not the same.
Maybe I'll meander down to Clint's Firearm shop in the morning... right after I bury my silver dimes in a mayonnaise jar in the back yard.
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