Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, October 23, 2008

5.2 billion

Not that 5.2 billion is inconsequential... and in the world of Wallstreet Bullshit, the Illusion is reality. But the Lehman CDS settlement worked out to 5.2 billion.... I hear. Who knows if anyone ended up without a chair. But The 700Billion, that was Shouted from rooftops, of the Crazies.

Of course, you knew the 700 billion or 300 billion was just the number of swaps, and since Some were purchased, some were sold. The question was how many more Shorts there were than longs, since the Gross number counted both shorts and longs.

but it just goes to show how irrational things are, not that 5.2 billion in the wrong places couldn't be extremely painful, But that the Gross number of swaps was being quoted and no notion of the Net number was even being discussed. And maybe it's understated and its more like 20 billion... but... 700 billion..... WTF... but Illusion does become reality for some people. And reality for many people does have an affect.

I saw some analysis that said the Pennant was still valid.... I looked at my charts... Seems like wishful thinking to me.

As much as I'm talking about descending triangles, there is a good chance we will drag along the 8k level.

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