Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, October 27, 2008

Financials

I Maintain my regional bank thesis, with slight bias... based on Momentum for JPM. JPM will be the survivor, regardless of how many necks they have cut to get there. And that I hate their guts.

Money will be lent, and it will be your community banker.

Crazy noise on Fast money. We could see some attempts at Takeovers of the big regionals, But I'm doubting it. The big Financials are holding much more in the way of derivatives. So... they will have to dig out of their hole for a much longer time than the regionals will.

From the FDIC takeovers, we have seen some of Mid size banks taking over some of the risky banks.... My point is there is some consolidation of the larger institutions, but there seems to be a bias toward smaller and mid range consolidation. THE FDIC IS TRYING TO AVOID MAKING TOO MANY MONOPOLIES, it seems to me.

Banks that are imploding are always going to be Takeunders. But most of the failures are small banks with no risk management. Where they purchased 90% of their assets in CDO's(probably from JPM).
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The Wall street Rose colored glasses, and denial on the fact that THEY ARE THE BUBBLE, that they will see 50% Layoffs... etc... Yes, we will see some Big Scale Finance. But if "Fast Money" on CNBC isn't an indicator of Froth on a bubble on an entire industry, I don't know what is.

It's a fun show. but Rock and Roll Investing isn't long for this world.

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