My Current official call, is for a spike lower in this pattern, which will be "The near term low", I do think we will come back here in the future to retest on a monthly basis.
This is just a standard Spike lower in a Daily chart. We are all waiting for it. Standard simplisting Chart trading says you have a "Momentum Low"(wave 3) then a follow up "Secondary low" (wave 5).
That is my official call, and Since not today, Tomorrow.....
Now... Other possibilities.... One may think that we will need November options week to reverse this Chart.
This is not my call, but I think it's a possibility.
The roubini Scenerio: he says the market should be shut down for a few weeks... I'm just saying He is always right... so.. Armageddon any day now. after shutting it down, we will see it plunge down 2K+ points... find a buyers somewhere there in the 6K range 650 on the spx.
Somebody was talking about how we need to trade fundamentals, and that they project the roubini earnings which move the Trough valuation of 700 on the SPX. But me I've always felt like the market, when trading on earnings trades on some version of the PEG. If 700 is the Trough, it doesnt reflect the Growth post Trough, which would sugjest a flat Linier regression High 700s, ASUMING WE TRADE FUNDIMENTALS, and assuming we get to $50 in earnings.(That is a ton of assumption)
In anticipation of recovery the thesis is that 6-10 months ahead of time we anticipate the recovery. That is a Bottom to the market somewhere between now and July of next year. But from a 750-850 level on the spx.... One can also assume that we will "let the bouncing ball of the market Run out of steam for 3-6 months.
But with continued "panic market".. who knows what the hell could happen.
We also could let the ball run out of bounce here, but one would think that we wouldn't stay here for more than 3 months, and should at least trade up a little before next quarter.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Monday, October 27, 2008
Some charts
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