Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Bill Fleckenstein

Bill Fleckenstein is on Fast money, talking about how we need to learn from this cycle, and how we need to go back to the Volcker Esq system.

He has a great point, and yet. This is the Cycle, 30 years of easy money. It bites us in the ass, we say"we need to learn this lesson and never do it again". Then after 15 years some Asshole in congress gets Volcker out because he doesn't have an easy enough money policy. Which means the economy has to actually grow, as opposed to "Pretend Grow" by inflation. Housing prices stay flat, People can't get "raises by inflation" which are all advantageous to the "uber Wealthy" and the corporations.

What I'm getting at is that There is no "Learning" from this. We swear it will never happen again, and it's just human behavior. Jimmy Carter will be elected, all the economic problems will be blamed on him, since they will be more apparent over the next 4 years, as we come to terms with the problems "Nixon" created.

As smart as Greenspan is reported to be, Problem is he is just a rat in a cage with everyone else. The Great "To Do" off of all this, is just to know it happens, and it's unavoidable. Anticipate and make money.

things rhyme and don't repeat, and unless the Fed becomes very stingy with rates over the next 5 years, forcing a stagnant economy it will become inflationary.

These are generational problems, Greenspan saw the tough money policies of the 70's and said the same thing that they said 40's-50's "What we need is more Loose money"... It's just a cycle, what we really need to learn is that the cycles are unavoidable.

What is avoidable is the extremes.

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