Jumping the shark.
It wasn't noticed but on Squawk he said he wasn't an investor... roughly he said "maybe some indexes, sometimes"
The financial panic set up by them shutting down the Markets, would be worse than it is currently. LONG HELD is the idea that you don't shut down the market.... NEVER NEVER NEVER.. sure historically there are some times where we did shut them down, but it's more because of bombing threats, or bank holidays, which were more bank stories than market stories. I'm a huge believer in markets HUGE, The confidence of Price discovery one could suggest is the strength behind the dollar. The more we allow the market to be irrational, the more likely we will come back to sanity.... It's like allowing someone to have a nervous breakdown... after it's over it's kind of like... "See, it' wasn't all that bad, now was it."
There is a video here
Where he said "If I were an investor, Stay away from everything but Treasuries Foreign treasuries". Commodities, any dollar assets etc.. and he looks hung over. If the dollar is going to Collapse.... You want to be in dollar denominated commodities. In this interview You get the impression he actually believes the market is going to 2K..... If it is... so be it...
That kind of sentiment, feels like a bottom... again... and feels like Roubini has jumped the shark. I'm not saying he is Wrong or an idiot. He just isn't JESUS of the financial markets. He works at NYU, and spends his time Blogging for god Sakes!!!
When the market gaped down on futures, then traded so thinly that it made it jump. It makes me more optimistic. Panic sellers had their chance, and didn't go.... It's a very good sign for the market. I don't see a limit down again in our future, it would have been too much of a money maker to have Purchased that "limit down".
This just puts more chips in the the market is acting like a bouncing ball that is running out of bounce idea.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Roubini
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6 comments:
I was thinking since this financial crisis is manufactured, and Roubini's been so spot on with all (?) of his predictions, maybe he's just the messenger :)
Market closing scares me.
Remember, Berlusconi also said they considered it. So it's not out of the question I guess.
It's one thing to close down bullshit markets like Russia,Italy and Argentina etc...(this doesn't exclude Circuit breakers).
but if Friday proved one thing... The fear is worse than the Reality.
If the NYSE capitulates to the fear... That is the worst thing they could do.
When Paulson suggested Way back when that the Ibanks needed to go to 40 to 1... it was to keep up with European Ibanks. The EU and all of Europe have some Serious problems, and barely have any way to deal with them. I'll bet Europe and "great Depression" before the U.S. Rescuing those banks by the individual governments is going to "Gimp" every one of those economies.
The E.U. was already having problems before this, because there is no "European union treasury", This is the Coumbaya moment like we had When congress started throwing out Rescue packages. But when they get to the point where the ideologies Clash, in doing something. they will have 20 times worse chance to sort things out.
And Asia, and the lack of Transparency there Is Ten times worse a problem. It's like the Family with the Family member who they have to chain up in the attic to keep up appearances.
The biggest problem right now is how the global economies are blowing up.... And like I said, why would you touch British or German Treasuries. Admittedly the yields are going to crack, but you are in Currencies that are working Toward Par.
We need to fight this out, on the exchange.
I'm not saying Roubini is an idiot, he misunderstands markets. Even with a Trough in Earnings of 60 cents, the market will never get there, because we trade on the potential earnings, Not the Trough of the earnings.
Roubini has been wrong, there is just a Psychology of thinking that he hasn't.... We are a Believing species... We group think. as part of our own personal brainwashing we think. It's what religion is, and he has become one.
The idea that we can cook this in, or move down to 700 on the spx and just muddle there for 3 years is FUCKING CRAZY.
sorry I'm on a crank today.
This has to be dealt with Quarter to quarter based on reality, and in anticipation of 2 quarters ahead. You just can't price in Armageddon.
And the Stupidity that we just go to 4K and then bounce is twice as stupid.
and if obama can get elected I'm going All in... Move to Thailand for a few years. wait it out.
Roubini may misunderstand markets, but he has been correct in this one for at least the past year. Sure, it could be luck and he could be calling for Armageddon for the next 5 years as we see the DOW go up to 16k, but for now he has been spot on.
I'm not really a conspiracy theorist, but assuming Roubini has been holding short ETF's all this time-- well, good for him. At least he has been putting his money where his mouth is. I could definitely see him or anyone holding short ETF's rumormongering about the exchanges closing. Heck, why not. In this case yelling fire in a crowded theatre would not be illegal, and besides it's not like he hasn't been saying this all along.
It would be like a fireman saying for 12 months, "you know that theatre is smoldering, it's about to go, you better get out" and then after everyone finally notices the conflagration, the same fireman yells, "It's gonna BLOW!!! Run!"
It's not like he is coming out of nowhere. Having said that, the low volume and rather sedate wind down on Friday was heartening to some, but to me it was not indicative of anything but negativity. Despite Art Cashin (is that his real name? It's like a surgeon being named Dr. Cuttin') I think we may not see a capitulation day on Monday or Tuesday. He cited some moon phase theory. This may smolder for another couple weeks and the capitulation may be anti-climactic.
The deleveraging will continue inexorably until it's done. And there is absolutely no way any one of will know when that is. How can technical analysis tell us? Capitulation? Capitulation is an emotional response, not based on finance but on the limbic system. We have capitulated a couple times already, with signs of abject fearful selling, but the deleveraging continues.
I give Roubini his props, and he deserves to make some coin if he has. Ritholtz is calling a bottom, but he is basing it on Gaussian bullshit, ie, "the market is down 45% so now it's time to go back up based on the last two recessions." He may be right, but it's a pure guess on his part and is not based on anything but a hunch. As Teresa Lo said in her recent comment, why are we looking at 10 or 20 year patterns when this is a once-in-a-century market event? We should be looking at bigger time frames. This market has shown no technical reason to bet long, and the fundamentals are completely useless (as if they are ever useful anyway.)
You say Friday "proved one thing that the fear is worse than the reality." Really? Proved? I hardly think so. A 300 point down day now proves that fear is unfounded? With all due respect, even though it was a low volume day, it was still down 4 or 5%!!!! Price, price and price. It was fugly if you were long. Period.
LET ME SAY IT AGAIN, LET ME QUOTE HIM TWICE. "HE IS NOT AN INVESTOR", he is putting NO MONEY where his mouth is. In the interview he says "IF I WERE AN INVESTOR" on squawk he hedged "not really an investor, sometimes an index"
You want to start bank runs and really panic the market... shut it down... We will go to 2K.
HOW CAN WE DE-LEVER IF THE MARKET IS CLOSED... We just open the market to the Hedgies?, so they can sell and nobody else?(This does pander to my own paranoia that the game overall is fixed, but I'll not feed that demon.)
HE IS TALKING NONSENSE.
THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES.
PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!!!
JUST LIKE EVERY PERMA BULL AND PERMA BEAR... THE BROKEN CLOCK IS RIGHT TWICE A DAY...
It's Not being a broken record that is hard... that is the world WE LIVE IN.. not the ones these Kudlow Schiff Roubini LUSKIN DIPSHITS live in.... Where they delude themselves they have always right.
What did TK say the other day "if I wanted to be right all the time, I'd shut up and not have a blog"
I'm still not saying we arn't going to 700... What I'm saying is that it's not healthy, all it will do is result in another even unhealthier bounce. This has to process, it has to Churn, it has to ebb and Flow.
No market cycle is the same, everyone is a once in 1000+ year event. Sure this could be the WORST in 200 years
BUT IN 29-33 WE HAD SOUP LINES AND A MARKET CORRECTION. Not just a correction.
I think I'm trying to convince myself to go "All in"
;)
Yup. Sounds like it. Let me know how it works out for ya.
:P
Just trying to work up some Courage, says the cowardly Lion.
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