feels like it...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
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2008
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October
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October
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13 comments:
One last chance for a wave 4 on spy today.
Did you see Barry R on CNBC-- buying ultra s$P (SSO) and ultra Q's (QLD) because they are "down 48%"-- as if that is a good reason. To his defense, he did not have enough time to go over the sentiment indicators. What if sentiment indicators don't work anymore?!! The horror!
I loved that he said he had been early... thursday early.....
for those not watching, he had called a bounce for weeks..
but I want him to be right :)
broken clock and all....
god love him..
In his defense, he sent me an email (his service FusionIQ) Fri and said to get in NOW. He has not been that emphatic ever. We'll see if he's right-- he basically cited all the sentiment indicators: VIX, %under 200-d MA, cash on the sidelines, etc.
Santelli is going apeshit about bonds signalling fear. Is this a contrary indicator?
Cashin: "get out of the stock market" Hilarious. TED up, fragile market.
Altucher: blah blah blah. Who's panicked? $200 billion in hedgies liquidating. Whoa.
that 2 year T bill is scary down .5% Who knows where the rest of it would be if there weren't so much supply around.
but... this still feels like near term aversion... and now a panic bottom... but we are about to retest that low....
Is this Wave 4 again?
this is it... if we don't rally here we make new lows...
in the secondary uptrend this is the end of wave 4 into the wave 5 uptrend through the end of the week
I know you don't look at horizontal resistance, but SPY is heading into a boatload of it. It may have to bounce off it a couple times.
Maybe crash into the close-- but I doubt it.
It's not oversold anymore either.
we could see this be a wave 4 in the downtrend. I give it 50/50...
but the full moon is in the Wain....
LOL
I heard something about mercury in retrograde too..
An interesting trade would be long WFC and hedge it with SKF. Obviously I'm late to that party (I'm pretty slow on the uptake.)
I saw some WFC and JPM preferred at 8%... not so much senior preferred.
50/50? Care to go out on a limb?
60/40 we are off to the races..
if not wave 5 tomorrow then off to the races.. sideways
we should get long trades and short trades in fast swings 1-2 day
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