People keep asking "who is left to sell". The reason we capitulate on mondays or tuesdays is because the lawers and doctors.... and other home gamers have to look at their statements, and decide I have to throw it in.
that is why captilation has to happen on monday or tuesday. anything else is just wishfull thinking. All the hedge funds have redemption cash that they are just throwing against the market. and they will cash in when they have to redeam... but the more they have to redeam the more they throw against the market.
Systemic failure at this point is getting Likly... maybe not more likly than not....
the best hope is that at one point "Being short" has to be the crowded trade.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
many thoughts
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4 comments:
Lately I'm agreeing 100% with everything you say :)
I figured it's Mon or Tue cause we need everyone and their uncle to get short.
Soooo want to see the light at the end of the tunnel, it's getting uber scary.
You sound depressed (on Barry's blog)
There is a fine line between cynicism and reality.
I have to agree with Eric's comments on Barry's Nikkei entry, anbd commend him for his very philosophical tone. The worker bees have become speculators. Business leaders have become vultures.
This is a much different culture than 1930's America, so heaven help us thru this Depression because I don't think we have the wherewithal to withstand the hardship. And now the world has nuclear weapons...
People I work with don't realize that their jobs are in jeopardy and without their measly little job, they can't pay their mortgage, feed their kids or rent games for their their Playstation.
Society may devolve into that Hobbesian nightmare, red in tooth and claw.
... or not. Who knows.. I think I'll go look for a new SUV tomorrow... I bet I can get a great deal.
I'm being dramatic, over on "the big picture"
it's all classic "be careful what you wish for"
I'm good... but my biggest fear is that my Kin Folk will be over here drinking my milk.
we will inflate our way out of it.
Yep, Treasurey considering backstoping all bank debt.. They will start chosing banks the Jackboots will crush any bank the regulators say is bad, and they will liquidate them.
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