Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, April 10, 2008

20 day chart....... from the BS bottom..... Nice to call it a BS bottom.... ;)
Also note that the last down wave was a 4 day sell off, and that this was a 3 day... roughly.... also the last upmove was 6 days and the one before was 4..... I wouldn't be suprised if we trade up through monday(WAVE A).. then sell off for 1-2 days(WAVE B), then an upmove for 4 more days.(wave B)

Here is the 5 day chart. the up-move will be in an abc form.. which will give us a larger ABC move.

here is a possible narrative..... We trade up through Monday, Bank Earnings are kind of bad... and we sell off initially, then we trade up on them, because though they are bad.... we knew that. They get a pop, because of short covering, Sell the rumor, buy the news.... or short cover the news.

This will crack the spine of the Bears.... which will then give us Bear Capitulation..... which we can trade down on.

2 comments:

Tony said...

I like your analysis, and came up with my own (slightly different) analysis. Your narrative seems pretty close.

http://kalamazoopost.blogspot.com/2008/04/elliot-wave-analysis.html

I couldn't expand your second chart, so i couldn't tell where you thought wave C would top out. I guessed about $137.70 on my graph.

Eric said...

Targets are mistakes... It's all proportionality... and will depend on many factors over the next few days.... It's Chinese math...

Wave C, I'll suspect the 1384 area. But wouldn't be suprised by a move to the 1376.

It's like I say... "I know the truck is turning, but how far down the road it's going... I don't know... but I will know when it starts slowing down."(hopefully)

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