I'm looking at charts this morning....
I for some reason can't post them these days...... There is a fuckup.... That and I'm having problems with my email.... I guess what I'm getting at is there may be some problems with my Mojo......... Just saying..... Except I tried my mojo out some days ago, and it seemed find..... or even excellent...
but I digress.... without pictures, this is what I'm seeing.
On The Dow.
There was a clear breakout to the downside of the rangbound action.
Lower Low, followed by a lower high
It will Neutralize out if it can move to 12520.
On The SPX(s&p 500)
on the spx its fairly neutral.... When you watch the trade channels you need a downside move... like the one yesterday morning to create the upside move... but you alswo need the upside move to create the followthrough downside move.....
as I was pointing out, we moved outside the "Pendant" consolidation. on the downside.... This was not a "Trade channel Violation" which is sort of a sucker move....
The danger here is that in a consolidation pattern it's tough to clearly see the trade channel since it's not made up by more than 2 points..... So.... With big up futures it will be hard to not segnificantly break the pattern...
On the SPY... which is different. What we have is instead of a downside move we have a more more neutral move. a breakout both on the upside and the downside of the consolidation pattern.... now..... hmmmm it's hard to say this definiatively... like I said, its a line with only 2 points to verify the trend.
IWM(R2k)
it's within it's consolidation pattern.
Nazdaq
Lower low.. but within the consolidation pattern...
qqqq lower lows, lower highs....but within consolidation.
Overall...
the SPX should Lead in theory...... because it's heavy financials.. and financials have to lead us out.....
any rally on other indexes... is a sucker rally....
but based on my thesis of a series of recessions...
say Q4-Q1 recession... Then a lead out and then another drop for a Q3-Q1 recession...
the upside breakout is 1450
downside 1240....
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Running some charts
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4 comments:
Interesting look at the charts. Thanks for the analysis.
I noticed that within the Dow, certain stocks are obviously showing this downside breakout moreso, especially JPM, T, BA altho not nearly as clearly as the index.
Is the tech analysis more or less accurate when taking individual stocks into account versus the index?
If you use the indexes as the Median or Mean(I know I'm trying to use them synonymous).
and right now My look is the indexes are neutral.
If I ran big money, For the past 2 weeks I would have been buying like crazy.
but I digress....
when you look at materials.. they look bullish compared to the indexes.... So if the market goes up the materials will be super bullish... and if the market goes down materials will be neutral..
With the nasdaq being weaker than the indexes.... If the market goes down, they will be super bearish.
What I'm saying is that if you asume the motion for the market is the normal motion off all stocks, then compaire your individual stock with it.. it gives you a good sense for how your stock is going to behave...
a good example is how bullish emerging markets are compaired to our indexes... Which indicates to me that later on they may be a good short... as well as materials..
but later...
if we go bullish and break out to the upside, I'll look to coal stocks, or regional banks...
With the idea that the bond insurance is going to be downgraded I'd stay away from the big banks... maybe Wamu or WellsFargo... I like the small banks BBT RF Peoplesbank...
I'll lean more toward coal if we break out to the upside. maybe even natural gas....
even though boon pickens just badmouthed Natgas.
I heard Boone on the Quick show. I was very surprised at his comments, esp about ethanol. He has called foul on EtOH in the past due to its high cost of production leading to negative BTU output.
My only guess is that he's craven and talking his book. Did he just buy some ethanol plant?
He's a big Republican and talked about the different economic plans of the candidates. It makes me think he's up to something.
He also called for oil to drop 10-15 bucks in the second qtr due to economic slowdown.
philly fed just killed us.
Boon just fliped me around on ethenol... I'm an inflation hawk.. but the rebuild of our farm economy is a good thing..
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