So.... the tape is getting ..... Uneasy... IMHO
Ok, here is my thesis... MBIA and ambac are going to be bailed out.... That is 90% at this point.
maybe the weakness is just the jobs numbers getting me weak in the knees, I always say I make my biggest mistakes on Fridays... so best to dig in.
The fed has given us a wind....
I kid you not, We still haven't dealt with the fact we have a recession... Maybe we go to denial and run to 1600 SPX until the fed says "No fuck you inflation"........
These semi positives should take us into the 1450's.... I'm super scared of a retest. I'll probably pull more off the table if we close strong.
MY MOJO SAYS WE ARE WEAKENING IN THE TICKER... (or does that mean my mojo ticker is weakening)... Overall I'm going to hold my nuts and hope for the best....
Hope isn't' an investment strategy.... The Weak Peso says good things for the materials, and for the Financials..... I just think that is going to take us up for a while.
If I had to go long, I'd have a hard time right now, and if I had to go short... it's the wrong time..
I suspect... its possible the weakness I'm seeing is near term....
Another uneasy thing is that I'm getting optimistic on the economy..... Even though our economy sucks........
Friday, February 1, 2008
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3 comments:
our economy sucks.....so let's go golfing. Grip it and rip it baby!
SPX 1600!!! Whoa, have you been watching Kudlow? If this market was going there, wouldn't it have popped more with 125 basis point cut?
Nice run up Friday afternoon, so I went short on China with FXP right before the close-- I know it's a gamble but I needed to hedge my other long positions. Besides, Mondays have been a bugger for longs 5 of the last 6 weeks.
Fins are looking strong, but is this all about Ambac and MBIA possibly being saved?????? I was unsure until about 3:30pm when the Fins bumped up more-- so I got a little SKF at the close because if no deal is announced, these boys are dropping. This will need a very tight stop because I could get killed. Still like GS and WB, tho, and may add to WB with any pull back. 7% divvy is hard to argue against.
Also, Gold is pulling back before its push to 4 digits. Added a bit to it. Thoughts on silver?
I was sort of kidding with 1600..
I would be super defensive as a short, be ready to take profits fast.
It's more a denial move than anything. The playbook that kudlow... and cramer are pulling from is the 1990 recession, with the S&L crisis. The market did just what they are saying, there was a cure to the problem and the market went crazy....
The way the market traded into this was very similar to this... I'm not saying it's right. When you have so many generals fighting that previous war, they make make it happen.
but just like in 1990 the market went through some denial, then realized that they still had a real recession to go through...
I also think we will get a pop once the short sellers give up.
Interesting thing is that the market doesn't go up as fast as it goes down. so 150 pts a day.... well that is fairly fast.... Down just goes so quickly it doesn't feel fast.
I've been talking 1450... when I run the charts I bet I see some 1530 possibilities...
I also think there is a ton of upside to the financials... especially the regionals. I'm thinking about putting my free cash to work there.
If that -17k jobs bairley scared us.... Wait till we put it in the rear view mirror.
my most likly model shows us going to 1480 then, slowly melting down till q1 earnings Then a week or so before that we take a bit of a dive.
Overall what i try and do is come up with some ideas about how the market could trade, then try and figure out how to trade with all those possiblities in mind figure out how to trade defensively. with those in mind.
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