Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, March 19, 2009

If I were a stock

.....AKA personal horror show.

I still love the talk of the 1975 Bear market and likening this cycle to that one.

I still... If we trade any cycle like any other cycle... I'll eat my hat.

Nobody suggests that this is the 1971 part of that cycle... You know, when the brokerages failed. But to suggest that it will take through 1982 to complete the bear market. IE 2020 final recovery.... Well seems like we will move this pig through the python faster than that.

I managed a good case of the Hebie Gebies tonight. The mamis letter says good probability bottom, but diabolically suggests some Rough trade from here on out.

Let us talk about some Models:

  • So, We have fit my model I have talked about all week today. We hit the 50dma and I suggested that it was time for us to struggle with it. That is Plain Vanilla T.A..
  • I did hint that we could throw some game theory into it, and Blow through it. Resulting in Either a high energy trade to 8.5-9 Or a Bull trap in the 810 range.
  • The contrarian trade would be Something else. Some other kind of sideways action.. consolidation.
  • I've run some of my sentiment indicators... I have suggested that we have a 4-30 or 2-15 Bull/Bear ratio. BUT.... As I Trolled tonight... We may be Neutral... and to mix that with Technicals.. we are half way there.
  • THE FED, So twice we have had this trade.. in Jan Feb and maybe even Dec we have had the "Fed Rally" mostly for it to be sold. What is my Rule of Threes? or the idea that Roughly any defined trading pattern is not to be trusted once established.
  • My model says that the Pivot Points for the market are Friday and Monday. Giving us a possiblility of a TOP on Friday Or Monday(the idea here is that we give the Retail guys a chance to jump in on a top on monday. Then we can Correct for a few days.
  • My model also wouldn't eliminate the possiblity of a "TOP" on Friday morning, and then a sell off through Monday Close.
So.. Personaly this shows that it feels like they are hard to hold... It's when I DON'T WANT TO PUKE THEM UP... RIGHT?

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