If you're short, I'm the sucker going long....

Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, March 7, 2009

bloomberg in a panic

Surging U.S. Unemployment Rate Puts Pressure on Obama

Posted by Eric at 4:08 PM

7 comments:

Tony said...

http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/obamas_bear_market_says_bloomb.php

March 7, 2009 at 6:48 PM
Tony said...

Are we at a sentiment bottom? Earnings (fundies) are a complete unknown and TA says we have furhter to go. But what about sentiment? From Yahoo:

http://tinyurl.com/asqnfc

• David Templeton focuses on investor sentiment: "This week's American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey reported the level of individual investor bearishness hit 70.27 percent. This is the highest bearishness level report by AAII since it began tracking investor sentiment in 1987 when the bearish sentiment reached 67 percent in 1990...If we could get any sort of positive news flow, the market would likely make a significant move to the upside."

March 8, 2009 at 7:04 AM
Eric said...

I don't quite know your TA.

the CBI>=18
Worden Bros. T2114 > 85
the iiaa bull bear hit high bearish levels.

on Wed which statistically speaking means we are within days of a significant low.

So then we have to look at the short term trends to look for oversold conditions.

The sto % hit a buy.

ChiOSC did it's little divergence action. MACD has some solid divergences.

Chris mathews is in a total freak out and screaming at republicans. I read a great story I posted about "now is the time to panic"..

T-lo pointed out the major sentiment indicator of when Technical analysts start pointing at ridicules figures Like cramer saying dow 5300...

seems like we are there.

March 8, 2009 at 7:27 AM
Eric said...

So... damn... another thing you may not realize is that there is the possibility of a "Stelth" bottom.

which tends to happen during discouragement stage. since it's not "panic" stage.. we get a stelth bottom.

Probably...
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/03/possibility-of-stealth-bottom.html

this was why I was trying to point out that it looks like we have a topping pattern in the vix

March 8, 2009 at 7:32 AM
Eric said...

stealth

March 8, 2009 at 9:46 AM
Tony said...

Thanks for the info... I see the divergences, but I'll have to look up the other TA stuff: too technical for me. I just now got the doji and harami figured out, and even after a full YEAR I still cannot fathom Elliot waves.

Also, I'll amend my comment on fundies: the LEI's actually blipped up ever so slightly in January for the second month in a row after bottoming in Nov.

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1

So, we have TA positive, Sentiment bullish, and Macro Fundamentals flat or even slightly positive... Hmmm, maybe the president is right when he said something about the "earnings ratios" being a sign to "maybe consider" buying stocks...

"Mustard seeds, my friend; Now what does my good friend Art Laffer have to say?"

March 8, 2009 at 11:26 AM
Eric said...

I noticed... Obama is scared. I think he thought that if he just had that week of "talking up the economy" last week. It would do it.

Now he doesn't have a plan B.

Little did he know we were in discouragement stage. and the president is discouraged. LOL.

did you catch Newt... after the guy who studied the great depression said "the thing not to do is to worry about the deficit, that was what drove us from 50% correction to a 75%".

Then newt was like.
"there are other ways to deal with a financial crisis besides raising taxes, you can cut spending."

DOH!!! rats in a cage.

March 8, 2009 at 11:35 AM

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