My best Guess and I should do some chart astrology,
but.... With redemptions continuing to create the death spirals.
It's Nearly impossible to create reversal wed-Friday.
This is going to take the Magic of Options expiration week, and it's ability to force Mean Reversion to make this stop.
One could suggest/hope that we could Base build between now and then, And with everyone who was bottom calling yesterday giving up, and now looking for a downleg.... this could be a nice Costanza trade.
I just think we need that special Options expiration Magic... and I'll expect more pain between now and then.
Or maybe the sun will come out....
So as to not dissemble... I believe the most probable thing is to "Bottom" on Monday or Tuesday of next week.
I would love for anything else to happen... Cause there are a ton of days between now and then.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Let me Make sure that I'm being clear
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4 comments:
Eric,
I think the bottom will happen next week. That's to say "I agree" :)
By the way, the sentiment is still "well, it's GOTTA be the bottom now, after all this selling!" Effing dip buyers.
Invivo says:
"Our stock scan produced 6 winners and 533 losers. Five of the six winners were ultra short inverse ETFs."
What say ye about sentiment?
At some point this will seem completely irrational. Cramer saying DOW 7700? Please. He is such a boob.
It cannot possibly go lower than 7950... according to MY careful technical analysis.
I just caught TK.... He has that " disparate smell" to him.
I'll say there is a good chance we will get a cut in the morning. not sure if it will help. It's so tough to take them away.
that we are numb to 800 pt reversals is scary.
937 on the spx is a 40% correction.
625 is a 60% correction and is proportional to the entire correction in the 1930's
LOL, this is just a horror show...
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