of this big "Crash", has been my lack of recognition of it. I don't own anything but banks (up till today). And all of this is well within my accepted levels of volitility. I've seen bigger swings, in things I've owned over the past 6 months, than I have in the past 4 weeks.... None of this is new to me..
What is funny... is that Y'all are just in for the same ride I've been on for months......
I must like the roller coaster!!!
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
The funny part
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13 comments:
Why did you sell the banks?
I have 2 portfolios... Long term holds which is filled with about 5K of a few regionals, and about 20K of JPM, WFC, BAC(total 20K)
Then I have a trading portfolio. Sometimes it's banks, or materials, or retail.... ETC but I try and swing trade these..
So you only sold the trading banks? Still - why? because of lifting of the short ban?
Short ban extended
Oops sorry :) old news, oct 2
I actually picked some up today...
but you also have to remember that After they put the short ban in....
I knew the levels they were trading at weren't sustainable, and sold most of my positions.
In this environment the short positions do 2 things, Create increased volatility. And allow for Pile ons. People don't know what stocks to buy, so they just short whatever everyone else is shorting.
there is a huge hole in our system, which is absolutely deadly to companies. In these bear markets destroying companies is almost a sport.
It almost makes you wonder or why some companies would go public. I know GS is regretting it.
I shorted SKF, effectively long banks. I like most of the top 10 holdings in SKF.
Tomorrow is a total mystery.
Can't we just get to zero real quick and then start re-building? :)
no kidding...
40% correction Classic Bear market correction... One would think that we will need to "See the great depression" to get lower.
but I am serious about retail... After 2000 this is a spine breaker.
they don't want to play anymore. Which I guess is a good thing, because increased risk=increased rewards.
Yeah retail will be weak. And other earnings will mostly suck.
Can you believe how quickly people turned from spenders into savers? LOL
We can stay at low levels for a long time.
Are you in hyperinfl or defl. camp?
Both....
we will have deflation for a while 6 months.... then it will be either they hike rates and we go no where economically.
or we get inflation....
Not Hyperinflation..... What they are doing on a ballance sheet Net=net has no inflation. They are turning Assets into cash. then the assets will be liquidated to get the cash back.
The only inflation is from rescuing these companies... and if we can avoid another one going under.... we can avoid it.
I have no idea yet, but liking basic materials.
going to bed, bye!
THis is making the rounds:
http://www.drdesignz.com/Dow-then-now.jpg
off! :) goodnight
how is that chart the same... besides that it's going down..
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