Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

De-leveraging

Ok we started with

  1. Homeowners, especialy the speculative ones. We may or may not be done with these.
  2. Mortgage Writers, ended with CFC
  3. IBanks, which ended with MS and GS becoming banks... One can sugjest that Wall street still needs to contract by 50%... MS and GS need to get rid of a ton of employees.
  4. Hedge Funds, Most the highly leveraged ones blew up Months ago, but we still need to get rid of most the MOMO's, This should mostly end next week, as roughly 50% of them should be or have blown up.
  5. We still need many consumers to Deleveredge, This process has started. once we see solid deleveraging here... Once our neibors can't get credit, long term...and the credit card offers stop comming... that is when we will see that happen.

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