Trend lines

I sort of assume that there is some.... ability for risk tolerance in "Traders"... I can't imagine that you would play this game without some ability for some risk tolerance.

The Market Trends. You have the Macro Trend... Which has been down since October. then the interim trend which has been up since Bear Stearns... and that I believe this, multi day down move is just the fourth wave of that up trend.... and we have yet to see the 5th wave.... My chart mojo, says that that could very well make a new high.

I use Elliot waves to try and interpret the trend, also some of the other chart patterns.

Then if your blelief is... Bearish... I keep trying to show you where the low risk entry points are... the points where you may only take some small pain .. .maybe for an hour, or maybe for a few minutes.

On the chart above... Well I tend to trade .... more aggressively than this... but... I also will get out fast if things arn't going my way.

So here is the trend.... So I did say go after that green entry... and after I drew it I realized that it wasn't the Safest entry..... and that if I drew that top line... the very clean top trend line... then I copied it and moved it to that other 10:07 low... that I do get a much clearer trend... Also notice that it held ....... That blue line is the trend from yesterday.

We continue to hold the red trend..... if you do your wave counts that pull back at 11:11 does sort of count as wave 4.... but the indicators of w Bearish trend... is that the bullish tends in it... tend to have failed wave 5's .... Now at about 11:30 as we were trying to break out.... the Tick values were very high. Meaning that there was a shit load of people hitting the Bid... and it shows a shitload of conviction.... but that conviction isn't sustainable... so when that conviction fades.. so does the trend.... High Tick Values are usually found at the end of Wave 3's.

here is the broken trend... now ... sometimes it's best to see some follow through Once the trend gets hit.. the bulls will hit it realy hard sometimes... also some bears with little conviction will get out.... So..... being conservative and waiting for some folow-through is prudent.

So..... here we are, and now the market is hugging the bottom of this trend line... Waiting to break down..... This is soooooooooooo Common, But the safe entry is just below that.....

Now... that 5th wave sort of is bullish.... It's indicators like this that sugjest to me that there is another High in this market near term..... Who knows with this Crazy Chart astrology... but I'd play defensivly with it..

That and doug Kass tried to mobilize the bears the other day... and he is usually 1-2 weeks early.