My thing about how you have to know that everyone is fighting the previous war... and you have to watch for it, and prepare for it to be a little different....... So... This first upwave was weird.. it didn't have a deep pull back.... IE no wave B.... it makes me think that maybe this is still the A wave.. and that we need to look for the B wave still. of the macro move.
that red line shows maybe we get a great run today, then a pull back.. then one more high...
*shrug*.... I'm just saying "Top Ticking" is a bad idea... this could happen anywhere from here to 1420
*shrug*
Friday, April 4, 2008
To... not fight the previous war.
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3 comments:
nfp -80k and unemployment rate is 5.1%
so what do u think the market react?
I'm trying to find the revisions.
I'd still look for a surprise rally.. I think it will just be a smaller one. but short able...
I hate to suggest the trade, but its best to look for a pullback then a "Failed Rally".. and that is a good short entry point.
Tons of people will jump in short at the bell...(lemmings) Then that move will run out of steam, the bulls will take charge), and we will get a rally, which will set off short covering by those people who jumped in short.... It's shorting that follow up rally that will be the move....
Look for a "Trend" and not a bounce.
I think.
80K was big.
but still not the serious -200K we need for a serious recession.
this is the "Stagflation" trade... which is worse than a recession. but should trade flat (+/- 1000pts on the dow) for a while.(6 months a year.
There is no reason to "Top Tick" But it's time to start looking for it.... But the best entry is after the top tick... the market trades down.. then has a failed rally.
this will frustrate some bears, especially if we trade up to 1385 or 1390.... But that "may be" the top tick... so we start looking for it there. But it's the failed rally that we want to short.
My wild prediction: The market pulls back in the am, then recovers in the pm, and ends flattish.
Eric's wave analysis from this am is consistent with this scenario. I think we start and finish a B wave in the am and start the C wave in the pm.
Plunge Protection Team should strengthen gold, silver and foreign currencies with rumors that more liquidity will be added.
I see no predictive value in the US market-- in other words, I have no real good idea what will happen. Hold cash, nibble at tech, buy foreign currencies. Maybe, maybe, if you are aggressive, short China (buy FXP).
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