If you believe in the elliot waves and the gold story.....I would wait for it to start breaking the downtrends.. because Wave C of this correction here could go down for a while... the trend line sugjests 83 on the GLD... if you can draw that 
you are looking to execute a very defensive trade when it cracks these downtrends.... The steaper one, I'm not all that confident in.... since the second point doesnt seem natural..
But the second leg of this should shake out the weak holders....
.....
3 comments:
Commodities are over, dude. Good call on the $83. I think you're pretty close.
As for the rally-- this is more than mere short covering; it's pent up demand and the end of the buyers' strike. Fund managers have been waiting for two weeks to buy on the first day of the new quarter: the same thesis you presented.
Look for a sustained rise in financials and tech over the quarter.
The only thing that can save GLD is a poor NFP Friday... but it would have to be really poor. Then the odds would rise for another fed ease and GLD would bump up.
Even a slightly poor NFP cannot reverse GLD's downward momentum. Banks will do well either way on Friday. I like your list. I just bought UB last week.
there is no doubt waiting for the momentum to stop in gold is the best idea.
I don't think commodities are over.
A lot of stuff is going to run for a bit... Problem is, we are going to find out that at about 1400 things are Fairly valued, and besides agriculture, and some materials, earnings arn't going to grow.
NFP won't be under negative 100K which won't unsettle the market.
The consumer is out of credit and cash....
This could easily be the beginning of the "Stagflation" trade. Where we are Range bound for a while.... maybe we do my 11300 in october.
of course I'm weary of being too bullish...
Waves say we get a wave b pull back at one point... and then wave c.
I had an email with brian shannon, about the idea the volume was deleveraging. but also possible, all the traders are as warn out as I am.
good stuff... I hope you made out on this trade as well as I did.
Post a Comment