I'm not a ... believer in individual news events making market moves... Yesterdays rally had nothign to do with an ambac rumor, or what ever story or Cramer or whatever....
Maybe you can look at it like this..... Seller exhaustion, .... and maybe the exhaustion shows itself as... and Ambac rumor.... or maybe that people start getting nervous about the rumor... or the idea that we "Could get an ambac rumor"..... The exhaustion was apparent in the technicals....
We pushed ourselves to the mid point of the Game..... and now it's half time..... there is a pause... and then we take the ball in for the big "Win".... or whatever.....
There is this thing called Anthropomorphising, we apply our own reasons, and our own Psyche to what happens.... so as we get tired or run out of energy... we come up with reasons..... The market hits a technical.... and suddenly cnbc says "this rally is on comments from Fed Charmain... Bla Bla... or CSCO earnings" and it's not.... they are applying reasons to the Chaos......
The Chaos is the market emotion... which feeds on itself.... the we hit a tipping point... and we Bounce..... FOR EVERY ACTION, THERE IS A REACTION. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH. The market moves in trade channels..... and it has to Reciprocate through them in the direction they are moving.
Now, there are some events that can move the market, but every time Cisco or Sears Farts... arnt' one of them.......
Another thing is that the market has flow.... and specific news events can't stop the flow... but they can Lessen it.
The REASON FOR YESTERDAYS JUMP WAS BECAUSE WE HIT 12000 ROUGHLY... and as close as we got..... sellers got out because it had been a great ride, and it was time to get off.....
NOW THIS CORRECTION IN THE DOWNTREND, is just a chance to reload as we head to 11000.
THIS MARKET AND THIS FREEMARKET SYSTEM IS FUCKED. there is no way that we can recover from the death of the 'SHADDOW BANKING SYSTEM' the crushing impact of it, in the face of inflation.... will cause the death of every bit of this bullshit credit monitary system.... untill we get the "BOND MARKETS" and savings markets to a level where they are apealing to the public... and we can get people to SAVE MONEY!!!!
The only thing the Governemnt can do... is print a shit load of worthless money.... in bailouts or whaterver....... all this will do is further destroy the economy.... if they do this, there is no reason to have U.S. DOLLARS...... I'M sure there will be a debate about this....... BUT I HAVE FAITH WE ARE NOT THAT STUPID.........
FED RATES HAVE TO GO UP.......8-10%
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
rant on news driven market
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