I'm curious this morning..... It was probably the peter Schiff weekly broadcast... but WTF did we bail out Investment banks..... Counter-party risk....... What about my counter-party risk.... no one gives a shit about that..... And aren't they supposed to be professionals.... one would think they wouldn't need to be bailed out....
Thursday, March 20, 2008
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I doubt we'll see 11300 this week or next. I can see the market bouncing along or going up from here. Except financials, I wouldn't be surprised to see a sustained rally over the next 5 trading sessions. The S&P has too much financial exposure to trade easily in this market.
Commodities are breaking down and there really is no catalyst for them to stabilize, unless there is some geopolitical event. Every drop in oil will give the market (except financials) a boost.
Except financials, I think the market rallies nicely. Technology is oversold and has been forming a bottom along here. Sybase (SY), Taiwan Semi (TSM), or even EWT (which has a lot of TSM) look good. Even SMH looks okay. With grain dropping, I like Tyson (TSN). The dollar will rally, too. Deflation. Deflation. Deflation. I'm even looking at shorting the euro, but I've never shorted a currency before, have you? Do you think that is smart to do?
Shorting EEM or buying EEV makes sense here.
Don't take my advice, I'm just a working stiff who has unfounded opinions.
Grodge
Overall I'm in wait and see mode... My charts say one more move up..... maybe just an intraday move.
The Commodities will stabilize when the dollar stabilizes. But the "G" AKA Growth in them AKA falling dollar will stabilize..
But the dollar will stabilize into next week...
I don't expect the commodities to break down any more than they will today.
part of the market going up thesis is that there is way too much short interest in the market... and it will take us higher.... and won't let us go lower... Near term.
It's not that my opinions are anything more than the voices in my head.......
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