Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Getting Ahead of the Curve

What is ridiculous is that I was on fire up till last week, which is what makes being weak in the knees right now difficult.

After that Things were ok...

I'm Whining here like a little bitch, Which is probably where I've gone wrong......

There just have been so many moves I should have been on top of.... and haven't been....

Part of the problem is I was distracted by my birthday last week.... ya more whining like a little bitch.

let me give you the permutations of what I think.

  1. we make a higher low... down at 12000 or so.... then shoot back to 128000 in the next weeks.
  2. We sell off aggressively... and this current bullishness is what it takes to move us down to 11300 (THIS IS MY ORIGINAL THESIS)
  3. we barely sell off today.... then go bullish and shoot to 12800.

I'm starting to get my 'chi' back and I'm realizing as the market sells off, I should have just stuck to my guns........ but I'm starting to make mistakes. and have to head it off at the pass...... I feel behind the curve and not ahead of it...... Which is where I'd rather "LayUp" and let the market come to me for a few days.

Sanity says it looks like we will sell off all the way to the close... When you start making bad bets the motion of the market tends to affect you more.

This seems like a Wave one downward correction today... and maybe we will have wave 3 tomorrow.....

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