The Real financial crisis.... The Real nuts and bolts about it... and the Truth of the lack of value of the Credit derivitives is that they have very little value.
In 3 years those APR increses/reset to 8%, will look like a good deal. But those loans will be worth the 30-40% haircut in asset value, Less the gap between the interest rate and the interest rate in 5 years, Less the reduced value of the dollar.
Most optimisticly they are worth 30-40 cents on the dollar.
I think the real crisis will be a bond crisis... Either we will create a bond crisis or hyperinflation..... I'm very curious which it will be.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Friday, March 21, 2008
Financial Crisis
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