Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Technicals trading

.... As much as I talk about possible market direction....

this is what I sort of see through the "Chart-Astrology".

I think the market is more like a large Semi-truck.. and sometimes I liken it to a Swimming pool(more people in the pool, higher the level, more people getting out or in at the same time, higher the waves).

But Like a Truck, all I know is this... I can see it Slowing To Turn.... once it's in a turn it can stop and go the opposite direction... or it can continue the turn... then it starts accelerating.... it order to turn again, it has to slow down.........

currently the market has been moving faster to the downside... The question I'll try and scratch my head about today is.... did we stopped to turn at the close? or did we Just slow down to Shift into a higher Gear. Regardless... we will still have to slow a little to make the turn... probably.

From what I saw yesterday, there was a slight head fake "slight accumulation"... Which is one of those sucker moves I always fall for and put too much money at risk.... we will see how much follow through we get today.... We had a Down 50 pts from the highs, then a down 100 pts, then a down 200 points move... with pull backs in between...

what I'll look for is a down 50 move, then a down 25... and all of that could happen between now and noon.... or we have a Down 300 day.

Interesting thing, is there probably isn't' that much short interest, stupid money in the market right now to create much of a short covering rally.

to go back to the "Pool" theme... the question is how many people are getting out of, or into the pool.... and how much of the waves are people just "splashing" around.

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