If you're short, I'm the sucker going long....

Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, March 28, 2008

I'm not positive... but I'm thinking we have a high probability of acumulation.... and may have one more low... or a series of lows... and we may get another bounce.

Posted by Eric at 12:17 PM

10 comments:

Tony said...

I just checked out some Peter Schiff. Here's a duel with Laughable Laffer from Aug '06 where Peter wins a 1 cent bet. Pay up Art!

http://tinyurl.com/3xmqx4

On other issues, the SPY is looking tired, sinking into the August 2006 territory (like the video above). Drip, drip, drip. I'm not a chartist of any skill... is this still accumulation?

March 28, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Eric said...

I'm having mixed feelings.. I actually cut down my shorts, and purchased a small position in a bnak...

It's possible we are about to turn.

but it seems most logical... that we will sell off into the close.

but... though we may turn... I'm not convinced into acumulation

March 28, 2008 at 2:59 PM
Tony said...

Call me really stupid, but I'm looking at this tired graph and thinking that it will turn on Monday.

I held my nose and just bought UB, JAVA and added to SY.

Dumb. Do NOT do this!!!

Have a great weekend.

March 28, 2008 at 3:27 PM
Eric said...

I'm with you.... I know.... This just feels like it coudl be a turn or a bounce... The Volume is Rediculous Rediculous feels like a buyers strike.

March 28, 2008 at 3:30 PM
Eric said...

We may have acumulation.... I'm likeing what I'm seeing out of the XLF and the IWM and the QQQQ

March 28, 2008 at 3:35 PM
Eric said...

There are some indications maybe even some acumulation on the IWM...

I purchased some more, it's scary.. but The most bullish thing on a turn is actually the Financials.

March 28, 2008 at 4:00 PM
Eric said...

I was looking at charts and trying to finc something optimistic...

And it's tough to find.

There were some indicators, but ...

I still don't think we are going to get out of that 20% correction.

As far as elliot waves are concerned... we are in the third wave of this downmove....

Which could end down at that 20% level...

If you want some optimism... that was one hell of a downmove... and moves like that are unsustainable... we should get some upside action... Some time.

I'm certainly spooked that we sit at 12000 waiting for the jobs report...

Financials... well if you look at some of them and they were trading in a range... I would think that they will trade in a new range that is a bit lower.

Peter Schiff... check out his radio show at europac, he gives you his basic thesis...and it sounds like he is talking about hyperinflation... but we will probably let the economy wreck instead of letting lose the "hyperinflation" Gennie

March 28, 2008 at 5:38 PM
Eric said...

that clip was good, did you notice the market was at 11300 and that gas was a buck cheaper

March 28, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Tony said...

Yes and SPY was at 129. The amazing thing to me has not been the decline since Oct, but rather the prolonged market rise from Aug06 to Oct07. Amazing. What was it based on?

The low volume may spell a small counter-rally on Monday. Financials (and tech) are oversold here and no fund mgr will buy them til next quarter-- which starts Tues.

I like the idea of nibbling at a high-dividend bank here. Dollar should rally, too.

March 29, 2008 at 1:37 AM
Eric said...

I'm typing up a thesis right now about how the hedges may want to start a Q1 financials position...

But the real secret is going to be to make that first print as low as possible, so that they can run it up by next quarter, and show how great it is....

I think without fail, Look for things that look unnaturally beaten down, and I bet we get some great pops on Tuesday or wed....

Unfortunately I think on Thursday the market will be at 12000 or 11700 waiting for the jobs number. This will depend on how the Challenger number comes out.. though it will be largely ignored, but could make us more or less nervous...

the Weekly Jobs numbers don't point to a Sub -100k NFP... but there could be a surprise... It is going to be a wild week.
I'm typing up a thesis right now about how the hedges may want to start a Q1 financials position...

But the real secret is going to be to make that first print as low as possible, so that they can run it up by next quarter, and show how great it is....

I think without fail, Look for things that look unnaturally beaten down, and I bet we get some great pops on Tuesday or wed....

Unfortunately I think on Thursday the market will be at 12000 or 11700 waiting for the jobs number. This will depend on how the Challenger number comes out.. though it will be largely ignored, but could make us more or less nervous...

the Weekly Jobs numbers don't point to a Sub -100k NFP... but there could be a surprise... It is going to be a wild week.

your question about why we had that October rally, I posted as a regular post.... it was too interesting for me not to rant about.

March 29, 2008 at 3:45 AM

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