I can't believe that there is still all this Gayness for cramer...... Personally I don't get it. he is just a guy, I don't even watch his show. I think 'real money' is a good book for a start in investing. I agree he can be a "Chucklehead".....
But as people get involved in that gayness... ask yourself.... "why are you gay for cramer".... and people expect him to be right all the time.... if someone can be right 10% of the time, and have good risk management. you can make money. so Props to anyone who is right more than that.... But One possible mistake.... Sure... Foolishly he is feeding the Trolls.
I keep finding blogs with a shitload of someone being Completely off the handle at him... It just... There are 50 Idiots on T.V. All Damn day, who are Butt Fucking Stupid.... Why pick cramer... Who does make a good point or 2.... Once in a while.
When I read the "Gayness", I just stop reading.... I only have so much time to read things.... or to listen to Analysts, or advisers.... I don't have time to read peoples incessant rantings about what an ass he is.... I don't know why, someone would waist their time going at it like he is their little bitch.
*shrug*
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
gay for cramer
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
10 comments:
I couldn't agree more. Cramer has something to offer, just not for an entire hour every day. Your comments about risk management are very appropriate and that is completely lost on Mad Money TV show, but is covered in his book.
Even the Great Rick Santelli-- who I admittedly have a mancrush on (and even my wife understands)-- would make inane comments if he had to fill 5 hours of air-time every week.
The anti-Cramer screamfest is emblematic of the frustration investors and traders are having with this volatile unpredictable market. They'rejust releasing their anger on poor l'il Jim-- and he's able to defend himself pretty well.
On other issues, I give you a lot of credit for trading in this morass of ups and downs. I cannot figure it out, and I'm not sure Elliot himself could decipher the 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C's any better than you do. Doesn't the up/down volatility make it harder?
Since we're on the subject of trading, do you ever look at the QQQQ?
Brian Shannon's video today shows "encouraging signs" on the Q's while the SPY is still stuck in a trading range.
The Q's are in effect a "purer" index since it is mostly tech stocks and weighted to growth. The SPY has 40% financials which are virtually untradeable at this time-- the financials have no discernable value until this weight gets lifted.
Does the Elliot wave chart Astrology work for other indices or even individual stocks?
Thank you very much for your compliment. I've completely missed Rick for the past 2 days, and blame his absence for the increased bullishness.
there is an Elliot wave site that is Wild!!! I'll post a link at one point... fairly interesting how he interprets.... He gets into Triangles, and I'm a little concerned he is one of those "Pyramid" people.
Technicals represent life, so it makes it difficult(since people are a bit erratic). I also think that some people rely on too many single indicators. and not just acknowledge the "art" or "mojo" to it.
I may try and do some posts on distribution Vs. Accumulation... The difference is that they just inverted... If I said one looked like some 'www' and the other like a 'MMM'.
There is a chance... 30% maybe that the low we made today was the first "Bear correction, in a bull market" which means it is an ABC move. instead of a 1-5.
you have to remember that the ABC's still may have 5 waves. They are just more sideways- which is why it indicates we are more Prone to move in the direction of the clean impulse waves.... Which because they are 1-5 waves shows the conviction. and the ABC shows the lack thereof.
Also to my advantage are that I'm slightly Autistic..."top .01% in math", am a Visual learner, and sit and watch the market Tick for tick all day.
I was reading some stuff today.. and the 90 recession... dropped the market by 40+%. I'm still not sure how much denial pop we have in the market.... But.. 12500-12800 feels much more like an very serious resistance level/Top for the rest of the year.
Crammer... What is the Axiom... the wise man can learn more from the fool than the fool from the wise man. I hear lots of foolishness that I feel like I learn from.. Ignorance can make you feel like your smarter... but the world is what you make of it...
or something...
and I may lose money...
or be wrong...
I liked what I did with that 700... I lost about 50 on it at the near term high.... but it felt better than when I jump into something, find out I'm wrong, then jump in and out a few times.. Seems like either way I lose a few bucks... But getting hurt to the tune of 50 seems less stressful...
I may start trying to play that way. Tiny positions to start and be a stronger holder..
worst part blog wise is that sometimes, I'm posting and there are technical problems I can't work out because I'm busy trading...(sometimes pictures just don't post)
Well, that does make me feel better...
"...that I'm slightly Autistic..."top .01% in math", am a Visual learner..."
That helps to explain why you see things I don't. I was starting to wonder. I'm top 10% math, but it was always a struggle. I'm not really a visual learner-- more left-brained really.
I can understand how the waves work intellectually, but I cannot "see" the waves, if you know what I mean. When I trade, which hasn't been much recently, it is really just trend trading and guarding against losses. I pick sectors and make bets and figure out when to cut losses or take profits.
I enjoy your site and follow along, but I get the feeling that Elliot wave trading has to be done perfectly or it could be disastrous. Mistaking a short B wave for a possible long 3 wave could wipe out a week's worth of gains.
The thing that amazes me is the varied ways that folks look at the markets. Fascinating. Thanks for your input.
... Let me give you the good news.
the qqqq's pulled off a 5 wave move in the correction... Which says "Kind of Bullish"...
... Bad news...
I think it's denial, that the investors think they will be saved in tech. Problem I suspect, is that in technology there is 40% U.S. markets, and 60%(ROW(rest of world) there will be ROW slowness, since we won't be buying for a few years.)
...Good news...
The rest of the world need's P.C.'s and Cellphones and devices. That growth in this stuff will I think probably slow only slightly. I'd be suspect of anything higher end... CSCO, Juniper... Growth of the high end infrastructure will slow IMHO.
... good news...
stay at home-Get fat and watch T.V. stuff will probably Boom, Movies, Video games... Etc. as people are just tied to home for a few years.
...
The Play book Says this.
First to bottom are Consumer NonCyclicals.
Second Financials, retail.
Third Materials
Fourth First Recovery(transports, Coal..)
fifth... Technology.
Technology is a good trade, because it's popping really well..
The reason is that in these short covering rallies the most shorted bounces the most... in the decline to jan, and that first Bounce, The IWM.. Bounced like 15%.. But mostly because it was the most shorted, besides financials. I'd look at the bounce we just got in Tech as just a short covering rally.
it's a good trade though. But I wouldn't count on them going long term in the recession.
This is what I'm, seeing... maybe we make a lower low this time, and then bounce to like 1300... Maybe...
or...
What just bottomed is the consumer non cyclical.... We just got a Great bounce in GE. and GE Never moves...
I'd say that is what just bottomed.
The stagflation trade though... is that materials and agriculture and coal and transports. are going to outperform Everything this year.
it's counter to "the wall street book"... but it's what is happening.
almost any time you hear that the commodities trade is over... it's probably a buying opportunity. For the next 6 months.
I'd love to see gold come back to 870 or so... I'd probably bite on it long term. but it may not give me a chance.
Consumer non cyclical will go crazy as a safety move, the institutionals will start buying that crap up in hordes as a safety play to protect their portfolios when the "have to hold stock"
FYI:
The 1990 "bear" market had the Dow down exactly 20% from the high on July 16 to the low on October 10. 3000 down to 2400. For the entire year, the market was only off a few percent.
The S&P hit a high of 367 on July 16, 1990 and dropped to 303 on October 10, for a loss of 17%. Not quite a "bear market".
http://tinyurl.com/34ddn7
For bear markets, we are pretty oversold from our highs in October. Is this crisis worse than others?
You're the tech guy. It seems to me we could be due for another sharp correction-- a capitulation-- and then a long slog upward again.
Tech seems the healthiest sector right now-- semis and software.
Bad link, try this:
http://tinyurl.com/yq54j8
What are the plays in the watchTV-get fat sector? IGT, Netflix, Blockbuster? I don't like any of those stocks. Sony? Microsoft?
'is this worst than the others?'
I need to do some research.. as my talking out my ass on the 90 recession shows.
if this is a 2 quarter recession.. We should start bouncing now. Except the correction should have been about 10%. Which is the reason for the "bottom" calling... The call is 4 months from the end the market should bounce.
Problem is, Housing still isn't bottoming.
also, the fed has no more ability to cut.. maybe 1 more point.
in 90 we probably started the fed funds rate at 9 3/4% and this time we started at 5.5%....
this housing problem is larger than the one in 90.... and larger than the one post WW2.
Everything is pointing to a recession that will rhyme with the 1930's or 1970's...
an interesting divergence is that one problem we had at the end of the 1960's was that we came off the gold standard.. which was another headwind in that time-frame.
A True Secular Bear... Like I'm talking about... should trade the market down between 20-40%
I don't know if this will happen in October or if maybe we go down to 20% here, then back up to down 10%, then back down 30% in October....
I also don't know how the stimulus package will trade...
Assuming that we know that it's a 15% decline, like it has been. and that is the bottom.. that is a 9 month recession.
Also... I would think the Vix would hit 40 on the bottom...
Assuming we are in a super cycle... We could trade from 10-12500 for the next 3 years or so...
I think we are in for a 1 year recession, with a small bounce in GDP, because of the stimulus package. Which means bottom in july-october. somewhere there.
As I'm remembering it.. a year ago we were at 12800 it would seem weird to me, that with NO growth, the market could get ahead of that.
Barry R. was saying some interesting things about Dow theory. and the market can't bottom till the transports bottom. I've never really studied it. probably should.
Do you ever give peter Schiff a listen... Super Bearish... Careful first time I listened to him I couldn't sleep for a couple days...
http://www.europac.net/radioshow.asp
Time for me to go to sleep...
gamestop,activision.
That chart is interesting.. This is worse...than the 90 recession... But one could theorise that the market was skid-dish after the 87 crash.
I'm talking about a Secular bear... in those markets we have 20-40% corrections. and it goes on for a few years... like 5-10. Like The WSJ said today "lost decades"
Some mild recessions aren't bear markets, just bull market corrections... IE..1990 some of the 1950's corrections.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=mo#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=5y;compare=^gspc;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined
this is the 70's period this may Rhyme with...
it will be different.... another strange part of the data is that the value of the USDollar dropped segnificanlty during this period, so inflation adjusted it declines segnificantly.
Post a Comment