Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Elliot and trade channels


What I see here... is a fairly healthy Elliot wave..... What has happened with this 5 day chart is that The initial elliot wave Broke into a larger wave... Into a larger trade pattern.... It is possible that this last move is just wave 5. I have seen wave 5's overextend themselves out of the trade Channel.






The blue shows the trade channel/Elliot wave, which then breaks into the larger Elliot wave





But, most likely what was the original Trade Channel, accelerated into a larger trend. This was what I was hinting at, when I was trying to figure out if we were Accelerating or decelerating





The big hint on Friday was, that blue marked descending Triangle... Downside target is 1300-1310






In red I've marketed what do look like Accumulation moves... or Hint at it....

I'm pointing out that there are HEALTHY UPSIDE IMPULSE WAVES. much healthier than the sell offs. Which look like Bear Corrections in a Bull market.... I'm not saying that it's true. What I think is that in the Low Volume, there were many people convinced into a bull market... Certainly not enough of them... but they are there none the less.... This was what I've been pointing out by saying it's not that the market was getting Sold... it's that there aren't enough buyers.... Even the sell off at the end of the day felt like There were buyers, just at lower tick levels. I was watching The Individual trades in one stock, and there were blocks of 100 shares being traded every 3 minutes, Seemed like Short sellers selling into buyers hands at lower levels.... Those are sucker Trades. I know when I've made those trades, I've paid every time.


Further interesting patterns... I've marked the Impulse waves(with counts of 1-5) in blue. and the corrective waves(ABC) in red Green and dark green. The Green waves show a more Neutral wave, which is almost an impulse wave with a failed 5th wave.. into a failed correction.

So, here are the wave counts. What this tells us is that the Blue wave is Owed:


a wave 4 then a wave 5.


Then the Red wave is owed a Wave 4 and wave 5.


so a minimum of 2 more new lows.... or 3 since we wern't done on friday.


From that accumulation I was looking at, and the attempts at blue impulse waves. The bulls are going to put up one hell of a fight at one point. But this is also just the kind of buying that could create enough panic to get us to 11300. Saying we are in a trading range is like bouncing off a new low and saying "We are glad (insert new low) Held and find it bullish for the market... it's just Yesterdays news... and it's interesting but not forward looking.... more properly said "we have been in a trading range"

Lookie here, this is 5 days of the XLF..... That looks Ripe for a Turn. Still in it's trade channel, but could be played out. Looking for a bounce.

Not that I'm perfect or anything but "just barely know what I'm talking about ", but there are some interesting signs in the market. ... and about reading the waves.... The only thing you actually know is wave 3... and as you suspect wave 4 and 5... truth is it can always accelerate to the downside... into a larger trend.

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