Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, October 2, 2009

3.5 hours of NFP

It's like being Beaten with a Wet Noodle!

I suspect another down day. I think most traders are looking for a bounce.

I read a ton of quants, mostly because I find them more sentiment than anything. If I backtested Up day after a down day. I'd get over 50%

Also If I ran "In the next 5 days Higher close than Yesterday." and "in the next 5 days Lower close than yesterday" I bet I'd get 80% on both... I bet I'd get 60% off of Both Higher and lower close in the next 5 days.

These are the reasons I think quant backtesting models are stupid. if you were using those models, those would be your MEAN, then your advantage would be the deviation in your backtest from the MEAN.

I'd say that Yesterday's selling will beget More selling this morning.... RIGHT!!!

Money manager meeting:
"well lets just take some profits and free up some more cash, Who knows what is going on.. but just to be safe."

so that is today, and there will then be more selling... the weekend papers will talk about it, and freak people out, Retail will take profits on monday morning...

Then a bounce.

But... I'd say this isn't the place to trade... If we have a Huge gap down, I'd say take some short profits. and look to put it back to work on an intraday Flag. If you are playing intraday... I think you are going to be looking at some work, I think there will be some non-Trend motion.

Just a random comment... there hasn't been a NON "V" bottom in 40 years... if that happened, you have no idea how much it would freak people out. I doubt a retest... I very Very Very DOUBT a Retest!!! I think if it happens the economic numbers will telegraph it, and the market will float on some Denial for some time... So.. I'm not sure it's worth worrying about... we will know it before it happens.

Sticking to the model is best... even though.. imagine... maybe it in a larger context.


back to Joe and the never ending NFP talk.

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