we hit my target on the spy this moring
It feels like we do have a sentiment shift. But I also love that nobody believes the rally.
After 2 months straight of bottom calling...... Now nobody wants to do it...
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
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Yeah sideways felt like a win today. The run-up yesterday was not rejected.
I had some shorts that I opened at the close yesterday and I got stopped out this morning.
Finerman made a point last night about such a historic run yesterday only got us to last Wednesday. I think she was bitter because her SRS got reamed 24%!!!!
I mean who the hell is holding that much short overnight in this market?
Are we still looking at retail and semis? TGT and MRVL?
I would look at kohls.
also cisco hpq etc...
We still need that big down day.
I'm not sure when, but we just need that pullback that looks like horror is on us again.
It's great that it's not believed. Of course Big Joe kiernan was pushing for a bottom, and that the market ends up 20% before anyone says buy.
What is also interesting is that on fast money, final they are starting to understand treasury plans. I guess that is what you get when all your news comes from CNBC.
I should have warned you we sort of needed an up morning as carry though momentum from Tuesday.
you also saw the screen, and that FCX is on top... Which means....
It's interesting that feinerman sounds like Mackie. There is a sentiment indicator for you.
I think we need another up-leg before we can solidly pull back.
At this point I just don't think anybody is selling, all we have are new buyers and day traders.
so... Maybe if we watch for some euphoria then we can get a pull back.
To quote Macroman:
"Repeat after me: six percent rallies don't happen in bull markets, six percent rallies don't happen in bull markets...."
I saw the FCX on T.Lo's list, and coincidentally I took half my position off the table today. Hope I don't regret it. I also took all profits from MS yesterday which was the wrong decision.
KSS looks like a solid long in the retail sector. Semis like MRVL and CY look like they've made their run already.
IBM looks stronger than HPQ, no? Even DELL might have some room to run, but I already closed my position on that-- I rode it from 8.00 to 8.80. And don't forget the GOOG. If I had to pick one flyer for a breakout, it would be BMC. One more from Barry's screen: Sprint (S) which is right at resistance and if it breaks through, it could run another 20%.
Shorts: AXP and COF are promising. Also, CEG in the utility sector. Might be time to give another ass-whoopin' to UN, too. I can't stand everything BBBY stands for, but technically it's too strong to short here.
Also, did you read T.Lo's guest entry on jasonkelly.com ? She gives her view "where we are at" in the Mamis cycle.
look at october 2002. fairly steep move out of there, and that was the bottom.
Yeah, I see what you mean about 2002. In looking at charts, I'm having a hard time finding classic short set-ups. Even AXP looks like that bear flag may fail. CEG, a utility, really doesn't look like a great short either. I thought UN for sure would look shortable, but correct me if I'm wrong, but is that one of those dojis you talk about? Perhaps that's a reversal pattern!
KSS looks okay, but man there is a lot of resistance where it's at... is that good? FDO looks like it's breaking out.
... Its not like I know. I had an interesting discussion with Brian Shannon about his "non-prediction", Seemed like he realizded how silly it was.
but that said... This is a nasty part of the market, and tons of things are possible.
I'd suspect that we need to push up to the november low, then we can get that "big correction" I was talking about(I know this is that stupid Horizontal resistance I Mock) but it just seems like we need some slight euphoria to get a pull back, Nobody believes this. I just ... It's hard for me to think that we are going to scare anyone out with that correction.
the thing we don't want is a bunch of Bottom calling, which besides doug kass, is not going on.
The worst contrary indicator is that I called it....on the button LOL
just to keep going on, I'm scared shitless to hold them, I did take some off when we hit my target or 93.
Umn... I think that is a good thing.
there is little bottom calling.
The problem with KSS is that it's ahead of the rest of retail in it's sentiment cycle.
I haven't even been looking at Doji.. In fact if the market pulls back and makes new lows... I'll be on the edge... I can't take that nonsense any more.
93? or 73?
I put up some charts and cannot find many shorts. FRX maybe.
http://starwealth.blogspot.com/
73
Another thing you may not be remembering ... is we used to have trading curbs. So in 2002 curbs kicked in on the upside and downside.
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