I'm going to show you 3 charts, Short or long, for the most part the pattern is the same..... On the 10 tick, or the 1 minute, 10 minute, 1 day, 1 week. It's the same chart setup. Just breaking a trend isn't enough. When I chart, I never trust the first few trend violations... Why? cause I've been burned to many times, and.... I at one point realize I got burned the same every time. The setup you want to see is this, that long blue trend line unbroken, Then an accelerating "Blow off" down trend. AKA SPIKE BOTTOM. But if you look at the smaller red lines they build that nice wedge. But when you have that clear red line and blue line and are waiting for them to be broken, that is usually the reversal. Here is the same thing in gold today, you have the two trend lines into a blow off top, preceded by a wedge.
But this is the stupid stuff, I do Remember my lame rule of threes.
I generally look for an attempt to break the trend 3 times.. Or usually i have a hard time trusting the reversal until, as the blue lines show, I have seen the trend broken 3 times....
but if I'm lucky, when I lay out the three lines and see the developing "Blow off top", I usually look for the reversal....
As I posted a few days ago, you have that "separating rise" there at the end, into the bottom. Now I do look at charts on the 30 tick.... and to tell the truth, I used to watch charts on the 5 ticks per bar.... after watching 5 tick charts.... for long enough, it tends to help you to see the patterns on about a thousand different time frames.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Reversals
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3 comments:
I draw these lines now all the time. They make sense.
But I'm always afraid to let the trade get away from me so I initiate it too early.
That's another reason why I like swing trading - doesn't have to be as precise.
At times day trading is fun though - when it's working :)
I have 3 trades planned for tomorrow and will track them closely.
With my number of trades I qualify for the Elite software (for free). I'm going learn it. It looks really complicated.
Really liking the Money Flow now, as opposed to volume.
Thanks for posting these.
I'm off to bed! Early start again.
Not yet...
I guess what confuses me is that by the time I get 2 confirmations it's too late.
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