I have a CYCLE
Every Sunday night- Monday OIL SPIKES.Then Every Tuesday, Ahead of the EIA report on Wed, Oil Sells off. (tell me that if fundamentals)
The report Comes out, Oil either sells off for a few hours or rallies Immediately.
Monday When Oil Rallies, after going up all week, and causing Anxiety. We Get Crazy Panicked.
Then Tuesday, Oil sells off. We get Optimistic. and We Start The cycle again.
The Striped line at the bottom shows the increasingly volatile Swing moves, Resetting on Tuesday, and Ending with Suicidal Weekends.
The Striped line at the bottom shows the increasingly volatile Swing moves, Resetting on Tuesday, and Ending with Suicidal Weekends.
All week Oil climbs and we get more and more worried... and the market gets progressively more Volatile, and Anxiety Ridden. All the moves Become Increasingly FAST.
Tuesday- We Rally.
Wednesday- Maybe we start a selling off, then move back up
Thursday- The Swings get Faster and Faster Thursday We have One move in one direction Two moves in the other.
On Friday, it's Nuts, We get a Huge volatility. Almost Always a short covering Rally on Friday the Weekly Swing traders are Covering, and the Day traders)... which is Quickly Crushed, But HUGE FAST MOVES, Huge Sell off in the morning, into a Massive short covering Rally.
It's like we Are Bipolar on a 7 day cycle. Resetting every Tuesday.
the first of the week is great for the swing traders, then the Day traders have their way.
It's an Accelerating Decay Cycle that Keys itself off a once a week Oil Sell off.
13 comments:
Cool!! That's pretty amazing if true (going to compare against my basket).
How far back did you look?
I went back a bit.. but sometimes once patterns are established they tend to transform.
I'm a little distracted, because someone has a bottom call... that I'm trying to figure out...
and a Top in oil...
and it looks like a good call to me.
but I hear nobody calls them
We could still swing using those patterns. Let me know what you think.
I'm exhausted, and need to do a ton of prep for tomorrow.
Need to figure out which sectors are going to run.
I'll be buying USO at $105 and below (since "oil to $200").
So according to your "schedule", must go long tomorrow morning, to sell in the aft. I can try, though getting overloaded with too much information and feel reluctant to trade. Day trading is for people who know what they're doing (not me). I think i'm a buyer in the morning.
I'm super tired of everything goind down day after day. What if it's not just me? People frustrated over so many down days.
We will see.
I'm suspecting a "double bottom tomorrow morning" Then we go test the Trade channel.
Some will have to do with how oil trades.
Maybe oil will put in a "double top" tomorrow..... or it will trade sideways for a few days. then it will break down.
And maybe oil will Break to the upside on Thursday and Friday and we put in a significant higher low.
have some great sleep you deserve it.
Your site hangs now.
"SEC issues emergency ruling on the short selling of financials
Gold, Oil, Natural gas ETFs and stocks are exempt."
grrrreat. That's where the new big shorts will be. Crap.
It's called rotation...
Out of materials and into.....
the boogyman...
and maybe safety sectors.
I made some changes to the layout...
Let me know if it still hangs
The site still hangs, though not as bad. I think it's the video bar. Or have the videos been there before?
They haven't voted on the ruling yet. So there's time to do something about "gold, oil, nat. gas" longs.
INTC didn't excite anyone, ha.
I'm signing off, goodnight.
It may be the InVivoAnalytics.com widget
Everything works great now. I'm off!
Have a good night, Eric.
I hope you had a great day.... It's funny, funny, funny.
Why is it that I don't believe you can't day trade like mad?....
You know you talk in Buddhist Koans? right... I guess it's possible you don't realize it, and picked it up from your parents...
I just think you are smarter than that...
Hi Eric,
I made a couple of trades this morning, and then went for a walk. It's a hot day, and I like to melt in the sun.
I read about Buddhist Koans after the first time you mentioned them. You flatter me! Never knew I could be poetic.
As for trading, I do quite well when I pay attention. In fact, much better than with investing. My personality - patience-wise - is probably more suited for trades, rather than investing.
Oil is down again, but your pattern is working + the rally was predictable from a purely technical POV.
What do you think for tomorrow: UP - DOWN - UP, or DOWN - UP - DOWN? (still, using your patterns)
Hi,
I think what I intended, was that you have a great 'Teach a man to fish' way about you.
After an up open, I think some small weakness, maybe 11am. That will be the warning. Then we should see some strength return. for a few hours. Maybe we close up? on Thursday. Then some weakness.
It will depend on what oil does. I think Crude contracts expire tomorrow? that could be a huge bearish Catylist for oil.
Maybe oil holds this level till the Monday sell off. maybe even it jumps up to 140 on Friday.. I think that could give us a Friday correction...
maybe everyone will be scared to hold Equities into the weekend......
Sell off Friday morning..
Short covering in the afternoon... fast rally... But... it's possible we just run. I'll try and pay attention to the rest of the market action...
I'd say we could have an Epic short covering run.... but that sounds like my sentiment, and expectations are way too high. and I'm married to these stocks.
I'm dying to know if Macky on fast money is still bullish on oil.(yep)
I just had an amazing day. And Easy,... I could see them nibbling at the open...hoping they would get people selling into them. then the indexes started popping. and you could tell that the Jig was up. The bulls were back with a vengeance.
:)
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