The mother of all Safty Sectors...
Health Care.
XLV
WOW!!! that first drop was Nasty.. Good looking Waves... a Sweet Base has been built. This last leg was very short. Not scarry at all
Here is a micro look... Nice ABC. Sweet little Double Bottom setup there... Tons of resistance at 30. The 5DMA is avove the 10, the 5 and 10 are upsloping.... Nice looking Chart... Sweet MACD divergence. Nice Wave 1 impulse, we are in some consolidation... I wouldn't be suprised if it pulls back to 30.20... Or not looks like a nice base at 30.40.I'm not going to do a breakout of healthcare stocks.
XBI Biotech.....
I hate this stuff... If someone cures cancer, these are a screaming buy.
I say it needs another correction... that could be Sometime in the next 2 years... I say it's going down to 56.. then maybe...
3 comments:
Man, I read biotech as a screaming buy now. Amgen (AMGN) and Myriad (MYGN) are looking technically very strong. Maybe a little overbought in the short run, but I don't know how much louder they can scream... short of curing cancer, of course.
Pretty recession proof industry overall. I wonder how they did in the 91 recession? I think AMGN did very well although it was a lot smaller company back then.
probably, I am going to keep going through that post, and look at the sectors.
I'd probably play healthcare, more than biotech.... Biotech feels like the Lotto to me.
The warning I'd stress is that Consumer Non-cyclicals, and Utilities, Well during the Recession they Outperform, but in the latter stages as we rotate into Financial and Consumer and first recovery, they make new lows. So, playing the defensive sectors is still a matter of timing, and knowing when to get out.
The other interesting thing is that every time it's a bit different, depending on if it's a Cap-ex recession, or housing, or Else. Up-till now Health care has taken a beating, and shouldn't have. and I stick to my Thesis that the Big financial s are still in much more trouble than their stocks yet reflect.
I think there is a problem with the Health care Sector that is reflected by their financial performance. I'd almost suppose that in a lot of ways Health care is more of a Luxury these days, and has become cyclical. Many times I'd think maybe people can't afford the time to negotiate with insurance to get Health care, and are avoiding it at all costs.
I also think people are coming to the realization that the side-effects of many prescribed drugs aren't worth the benefits... Especially when most things are just a way to get around, eating healthy, and getting some exercise.
Course I don't really know what I'm talking about, and it all sounds like I hate insurance companies and doctors.... and mechanics... Stock brokers... financial advisers... tennis pro's... Cycling Champions... Stage hands... Psudo-scientists... middle management... people with ties... woman in suit pants... lazy janitors... etc... etc...
Health care is a luxury... until you need it.
Thanks for the charts on PFE, MRK, AMGN and BAX.
I guess see SOME of the biotechs as sound investments. The question that needs to be asked is what will we as a society have to pay for? The great advances in pharma are not with some new me-too statin or NSAID-- that's been done to death and PFE will die.
The new advances will be in biotech, genetics, etc. AMGN has THE franchise with erythopeoitin type meds and that is not likely to go away soon as our population ages and gets cancer and renal failure. This is a Medicare issue and the fact is that Neutramagin and Erythopeitin are hugely cost-effective even at the large profit margins enjoyed by AMGN.
Yes, things like Myriad are crapshoots for the next "cure for cancer", but I would think that is exactly ripe for technical analysis. If something is in the pipeline, the stock price should reflect it in subtle ways, right?
Big money managers cannot concentrate on the Myraid-size companies and that is the perfect enviro for hackers like me.
I enjoy looking at your EWT analysis.
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