Would you believe that either we are going to rally or crash?
I can't find a time we have sold off 15% in 2 months, without a significant Rally. Except 1929/1987... I don't have a 1907 data
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
wierd
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
The market is getting crazy, while everyone is thinking there would be a rally with 155+ points up in Dow on Tue and yet see - a big sell off of 230- points in Dow on Wed.
The SPY call that i bought in the morning has been stopped out. I don't want to be the bull now until VIX reached a real fear at 30.
What's your thoughts?
I'm stumped, We have never done this. Never sold off 15% in 2 months without a rally except Crashes.
It will be very hard to go lower without a good 300 pt rally.
No bear market has sold off 30% in 9 months without a Crash. and most of those were "mini Bears" meaning they recovered Fast.
Kass is buying financials,
gartman is buying financials.
TK says 300 more points of downside.
carter worth says 1000 to the downside to go
I like your Trade. I've been waiting for that sell off for 3 weeks. But I think we are going to muddle more... Maybe bounce around for 4-6 days, then maybe we will get your sell off.
This market will continue to make everyone crazy.
What has been working for me are short term trades. Just looking the other way... If we rally, look for a sell off, if we sell off wait and look for a rally.
or we will sell off for 2 days, and get your VIX spike.
But the market is going to stump everyone..... I would just count on the roller coaster.
The high Volatility suggests we are near an important low.
When we close on the lows, we usually have a morning Rally. But I suspect Grim Futures, I almost guarantee that if we are down 50 we will "Fade that gap"
And Maybe oil will sell off $6.
maybe overnight some of the asian and european markets will take some nice 10% losses overnight, and scare the crap out of everyone, and we will get your vix spike.
Maybe we will rally in the morning Till 10-11am, then we will sell off.
Want to know something scary, in the 2000 recession the vix would hit 40.
Post a Comment